Susana Martinez (left, courtesy photo) and Diane Denish (photo by Heath Haussamen)
Republican gubernatorial candidate Susana Martinez has a five-point lead over Democratic opponent Diane Denish, according to a new Rasmussen Reports poll.
Martinez led 48 percent to 43 percent, with 3 percent of those surveyed preferring another candidate and 6 percent undecided. The survey of 750 likely voters was conducted Tuesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
When those surveyed who Rasmussen Reports calls “leaners” are included – those who haven’t made up their mind but are leaning toward a candidate – Martinez’s lead climbs to seven points, 51 percent to 44 percent.
The poll – the first to be released publicly since early June – confirms what I and other political analysts have been saying for weeks: that Martinez has pulled ahead of Denish in the governor’s race. Democrats and Republicans have done polling that hasn’t been released publicly, and both campaigns have been acting for some time as though Martinez had the lead.
The poll confirms a significant shift in Martinez’s favor. When Rasmussen first tested potential GOP candidates against Denish in March, she led Martinez by 19 points. Just before and after Martinez won the primary, the two candidates were statistically tied.
The big poll is yet to come: Research and Polling Inc. is conducting a survey of the race this week for an Albuquerque Journal article that will publish Sunday. The Research and Polling surveys are generally considered the most accurate in New Mexico.
More on the Rasmussen poll
In the Rasmussen Reports poll, 76 percent of Democrats said they back Denish, while 86 percent of Republicans said they back Martinez. Martinez had a lead of more than 2-1 over Denish among “voters not affiliated with either major political party.”
That’s key: No Republican can win a statewide race in New Mexico without Democrats and independents.
Martinez and Republicans have worked hard to tie Denish, the lieutenant governor, to Gov. Bill Richardson, and the poll reveals that the strategy remains a good one. Richardson’s approval rating remains low. A combined 40 percent said they “strongly” or “somewhat” approve of the job he’s doing, while a combined 57 percent said they strongly or somewhat disapprove.
But it’s not clear from the poll that voters are tying Denish to Richardson. Her favorable/unfavorable numbers aren’t that different than Martinez’s. Denish was viewed very favorably by 25 percent of those surveyed, somewhat favorably by 28 percent, somewhat unfavorably by 20 percent and very unfavorably by 22 percent. Martinez was viewed very favorably by 28 percent of those surveyed, somewhat favorably by 27 percent, somewhat unfavorably by 18 percent and very unfavorably by 22 percent.
Rasmussen Reports rates the race as a toss-up. I have said, in the monthly NMPolitics.net newsletter that goes to qualifying donors, that the race leans in Martinez’s favor, but I expect Denish to gain ground before Election Day.