New polls of the governor’s race and the 1st and 2nd congressional district contests suggest that the mood in New Mexico isn’t as bad for Democrats as many, including me, previously thought. The bottom line: All three races are still up in the air.
Republican Susana Martinez has the lead in the governor’s race, but it’s not the huge lead some expected, according to a new Journal poll. And Democrats Martin Heinrich and Harry Teague have leads in the congressional races.
Susana Martinez (left, courtesy photo) and Diane Denish (photo by Heath Haussamen)
Martinez leads Denish
For a Republican in a state largely controlled by Democrats, Martinez is in a good place. With just over nine weeks until Election Day, a weekend Albuquerque Journal poll had her leading Democrat Diane Denish by 6 percentage points.
Martinez’s lead of 45 percent to 39 percent in the Journal poll came at the same time that a Rasmussen Reports poll found Martinez leading by 5 points – 48 percent to 43 percent – with 3 percent undecided.
The difference in the Journal poll is that 16 percent of those surveyed remained undecided. The poll of 942 likely voters was conducted between Aug. 23 and 27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Denish put the spotlight on those 16 percent in a fundraising e-mail.
“These voters will determine who our next Governor will be and we have 65 days to get them on our side,” her e-mail states. She added that the Journal pollster, Brian Sanderoff, “got it right” when he told the Journal the race is still “up in the air.”
Martinez also acknowledged in her own fundraising e-mail that the race is far from over.
“Recent polls confirm my vision and message of bold change is resonating with voters all across New Mexico… but we are still a long way out from Election Day,” her fundraising e-mail stated.
Martinez is in ‘a very good place to be’
Many had expected Martinez’s lead to be larger, perhaps 8-10 points, so while her lead is impressive and will be difficult for Denish to overcome, it’s not as daunting as some Democrats feared.
Still, Martinez’s lead is solid. The Journal poll found that she’s snagging the support of one in five Democrats, including one in five Hispanic Democrats; has locked up the GOP vote; and is leading among independents – though 29 percent of those not registered as Republicans or Democrats remain undecided. Martinez leads among men, Anglos and voters over 50.
“Politically, it’s a very good place to be,” Sanderoff said of Martinez. He added that Denish needs to reverse the “slippage of crossover Democrats.”
Denish is fighting against a conservative state and national mood and a successful attempt to tie her to Gov. Bill Richardson, who had a dismal approval rating in the Journal poll of 33 percent.
Still, Sanderoff said, there’s “nothing in the poll that says this is all over.” And the polls of the congressional races, which both lean in the opposite direction, may help reveal why.
Jon Barela, left, and Martin Heinrich (courtesy photos)
Heinrich leads Barela
In the portion of the larger Journal poll conducted in the 1st Congressional District, the likely voters surveyed gave Heinrich a 47 percent to 41 percent lead over Republican Jon Barela, with 12 percent of voters undecided. The Journal said the 1st District poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
“The good news for Heinrich is that he’s ahead,” the Journal quoted Sanderoff as saying. “The bad news is that he is the incumbent, and Jon Barela is just now getting himself known.”
Sanderoff said some “might have expected a larger lead for the incumbent.” But other polls have already confirmed a tight race. In fact, last month a poll showed Barela leading by 6 points.
Heinrich had a strong lead among independents – 45 percent to Barela’s 31 percent – which is a key statistic that’s huge for Heinrich. But Barela should not be discouraged, Sanderoff was quoted by the Journal as saying.
“He is down 6 points at a time when he is just beginning the awareness-and-persuasion part of his campaign,” Sanderoff said. “It’s a not a bad place to be in, given the mood of the nation and the fact that it’s still August.”
Heinrich led Barela among Hispanics 54 percent to 33 percent. Sanderoff said getting a third of those voters – often Democrats – is “pretty good” for Barela.”
“Needless to say, Martin Heinrich cannot take this race for granted,” the Journal quoted Sanderoff as saying.
Steve Pearce, left, and Harry Teague (Photos by Heath Haussamen)
Teague leads Pearce
The biggest surprise from the Journal polls is Teague’s narrow lead over Republican Steve Pearce. In a poll with a margin of error of 5 percentage points, Teague led 45 percent to 42 percent. This is anyone’s race, but many expected that Pearce, not Teague, would have the slight advantage.
Thirteen percent of those surveyed remain undecided, the Journal poll found. And independents were almost evenly split between Teague and Pearce. The latter is huge for Teague, given the national mood that leans to the right, Sanderoff was quoted as saying.
“In so many districts across the nation, independents are skewing Republican, and here we see that they are splitting pretty evenly among Teague and Pearce,” the Journal quoted Sanderoff as saying. “It’s fair to say independents will be critical to the outcome of the election. They can be the deciding factor in a close race.”
Teague’s campaign was quick to tout the poll results.
“This poll shows that Harry Teague has proven to be the kind of representative people in southern New Mexico want,” Campaign Manager Dominic Gabello said. “… We are encouraged by these poll numbers, but Harry is taking nothing for granted. This is still a tough race and Harry is going to keep doing what he’s been doing, working hard for the people and communities he represents.”
Sanderoff was quoted by the Journal as saying that Teague “surprised the world two years ago when he won in a Republican district,” and “Now we see that he is still hanging in there against a former incumbent in a conservative year in a conservative district.”
“Basically, we have an incumbent running against a former incumbent — both of them are well-known — and the fact that Teague has an ever-so slight lead is encouraging for him,” Sanderoff said.
What it means
I would have guessed before these polls that Martinez was leading by 8-10 points, Heinrich was leading by 3-5 points and Pearce was leading by 3-5 points. But Sanderoff’s polls for the Journal are considered the best among independent polls of New Mexico political races, and his new surveys appear to reveal that the shift to the right isn’t quite as strong in New Mexico – at least for the moment – as I and some others thought.
That’s good news for Democrats.
Martinez’s support among Democrats – and particularly Hispanic Democrats – is the main reason she’s leading, but the support of those crossover voters may be soft. Heinrich’s lead is tenuous because Barela is just becoming known, and Heinrich could lose it if he doesn’t define Barela before Barela defines himself. Teague’s lead could be due in part to how hard he’s worked – he’s been a tireless holder of town-hall and constituent meetings – and might also be due to the fact that Pearce is just as well known as him and might also be hurt by the anti-incumbent mood sweeping the nation.
The polls reveal a clear lead for Martinez – for now – as well as a lead for Heinrich that could evaporate as Barela becomes better known and a toss-up in the 2nd District that leans surprisingly and ever-so-slightly in Teague’s favor.
Anything could happen in the next nine weeks. All three races are up for grabs.