The Influentials, or not

The U.S. Capitol building (Photo by Heath Haussamen)

It should come as no surprise to you that I feel the need to comment on Chris Cillizza’s July 2 Washington Post blog, “Ranking the Most Influential Republicans.” Now, I am not declaring my Republicanism here, I am just interested from my center-right frame of mind. Who are the GOP’s ‘most influential?’ A very good question.

According to the blog, Haley Barbour tops the list at No. 1. (Parenthetically, we should note that when you log in to vote in agreement or disagreement with the Post’s top 10, you will find that Romney takes the No. 1 spot amongst everyday voters.)

Here is the Post’s run down of the GOP’s most influential from 10 to 1.

10. Mike Huckabee
9. Bobby Jindal
8. Nikki Haley
7. Newt Gingrich
6. Scott Brown
5. Tim Pawlenty
4. Chris Christie
3. Sarah Palin
2. Mitt Romney
1. Haley Barbour

Truth be told, I partially embrace this list and partially take issue with it. I am not going to go into the ins and outs of the actually numbering of the 10-1 ranking – it’s just way too subjective. However, I am going to comment on whether each candidate listed deserves to be even listed as one of the Top 10 ‘most influential.’

For each of the Top 10, I will give you:

Wash Post: Rationale for top 10 status.
The Savvy: Opinion on top 10 status
In cases of disagreement, I will suggest an alternative ‘influential’ pick.

Here Goes

10. Mike Huckabee

Wash Post: “Huckabee raised some eyebrows last weekend in an interview with Fox News Sunday’s Chris Wallace in which he seemed to hint that he was leaning toward a 2012 run. But, then came word this morning that Huckabee is trying out a six-day-a-week television show for Fox News Channel…”
The Savvy: I disagree. While amiable and FOX News friendly, airtime does not automatically make you the new GOP spokesman or policy relevant, for that matter. Entertainment does not translate into leadership.
Alternative: Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana is a perfect example of the fiscally-conservative leader that Republicans (and others) are looking for. After just one year in office, Governor Daniels did the miraculous by leading his state to its first balanced budget in eight years. That’s leadership.

9. Bobby Jindal

Wash Post: “With oil continuing to spill into the Gulf, the Louisiana governor has emerged as the highest profile foil to President Obama. Jindal has been everywhere during the spill, working to flex the organizational expertise that is at the root of his political brand.”
The Savvy: I agree. Jindal is influential by default. The spotlight is on him and he is living up to the task. I would speculate that the power of Jindal’s influence is yet to come. Stay tuned.

8. Nikki Haley

Wash Post: “The South Carolina gubernatorial nominee became a national sensation over the past month – fighting off infidelity allegations to sweep to a victory on June 22. Haley, who is Indian-American, is just the sort of fresh face Republicans need to show that they are not simply a party of and for old white men.”
The Savvy: I totally disagree. While Haley is putting up a nice little fight – and yes, she is a fresh, young, female face for the GOP – a mere nomination does not deem her immediately influential amongst the Republican rank and file.
Alternative: I never thought I would be suggesting this, but here we go – South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham. Why influential? His swing position in Congress, of course. Like him or not, Graham nearly single-handedly controls the fate of the climate and immigration bills, which is a fair testament to him being influential.

7. Newt Gingrich

Wash Post: “As the guy with the biggest brain (or close to it) in the party, Gingrich will have a say over the next nominee whether or not he is in the running himself.”
The Savvy: I am not quite in agreement here. While definitely an Ideas Man, until Newt starts stomping and doling out cash to others, he is just that, an Ideas Man.
Alternative: Supreme Court Justice John Roberts as the New Thinker. We should note that the Post’s “Most Influential” includes executive branch hopefuls and legislative branch swingers on both the state and federal level. The judicial branch was completely overlooked. While I understand that the judicial branch is supposed to be apolitical, one should not dismiss the power of Chief Justice John Roberts. If you go to the Supreme Court’s official blog and check out this term’s latest Stat Pack, you will see that he was in the majority this term in more cases than any other justice. We can expect this judicial leadership to continue – and to Republicans, that matters.

6. Scott Brown

Wash Post: “Brown, the hottest thing in electoral politics in the months following his January special election victory, has settled nicely into his role as a swing, moderate vote in the Senate…And a new Boston Globe poll showed that he was the most popular politician in the Bay State. Not bad.”
The Savvy: I whole-heartedly agree. Praise to Senator Scott Brown, and let’s just hope he uses his swing vote wisely. The man out of nowhere, and sudden possessor of Ted Kennedy’s seat, is another example of influencer-by-default. At a recent fundraiser for Senator Brown for Young Professionals in Washington, two things were quite clear. 1) People gravitate to this man – in fact, the majority of people that I took with me to the event were left-of-center. 2) The senator is passionate about policy issues. He spent a good 11 minutes (I was watching the clock) speaking to a colleague and myself about a climate change discussion he had with President Obama that very day. Charisma + policy smarts + swing voter = influence.

5. Tim Pawlenty

Wash Post: “Tpaw is everywhere these days. He swung through South Carolina for two days earlier in the week and doled out a bundle of campaign cash to Haley and Sen. Jim DeMint, among others.”
The Savvy: I agree. For the same reasons that Barbour and Romney are listed as No. 1 and 2 (fundraising, stomping, and endorsing), Pawlenty is pulling his weight. Barbour and Romney are on the Varsity Team. Pawlenty is J.V. See No. 1 and No. 2 below.

4. Chris Christie

Wash Post: “Christie’s win in getting his budget passed through a Democratic-controlled legislature drew widespread praise among conservatives. For Republicans looking for a blueprint about how to win back purple states in 2010 and 2012, Christie’s is compelling.”
The Savvy: I agree. A la my Mitch Daniels commentary earlier, Christie ( I think) is the kind of fiscal conservative that the GOP is screaming for. Already, he has done the unthinkable in New Jersey and it’s not going without national recognition. Christie is becoming a household name, and it’s not because he’s a Republican celebrity – it’s because he’s making tough choices and doing the right thing.

3. Sarah Palin

Wash Post:” An argument can be made that Palin should be No. 1 on this Line. Her recent endorsements of Nikki Haley and former HP executive Carly Fiorina made an impact in those races in a way that few other politicians could.”
The Savvy: I agree and disagree. Quite frankly, I am on the fence. To deny that Sarah Palin is influential amongst the social-conservative crowd would be remiss. And, further, to deny that social conservatives are not still a major block within the GOP would be bordering on ignorant. While I am not one beholden or sympathetic to social conservative causes – and while I want the GOP to move more towards the center-right – I can’t evade reality. While I might not agree with her substantively (and believe she is being a bad influence on the GOP on this score with her uber conservative social views) – I can’t not be a little in awe of her political tactics. She gets it politically. She pulled off double whammies just yesterday. After 1) 60 days of sound endorsements (Fiorina and Haley), she followed it up with 2) a video released yesterday, which immediately went viral. For better or for worse, Palin is impacting the GOP foray.
Alternative: Dr. Condoleezza Rice. Here is a woman, who has pointedly chosen not to go “political” this go-around. But let me assure you – if and when she does – any Palin endorsement or grizzly video will be left in the d-u-s-t. (By way of disclosure, I used to work for Rice.)

2. Mitt Romney

Wash Post: “The former Massachusetts governor is slowly and methodically rolling out endorsements in state after state, acting like what he is: the current frontrunner for the 2012 Republican nomination.”
The Savvy: First off, by way of disclosure, I have done work for Romney, including being the lead researcher on his latest book, and I’m still active with his PAC. On to the ranking: I agree. This man is a genius on all things fiscal. Here is one politician who actually understands budgetary discipline and put it into practice (over and over again) in both the private sector and at the state level as governor of Massachusetts. In this most recent economy, that’s nothing to underestimate. In addition, let’s not forget that Governor Romney’s Free and Strong America PAC has surpassed most conservative GOP PACs out there on fundraising and stomping for GOP hopefuls. One more thing – in terms of policy relevance, and being a voice to counter liberal thinking (in general) or President Obama’s foreign policy (directly) – Romney offers ‘No Apology.’ He has been prolific by op-ed (read the latest here) and outspoken by air. If this combination is not ‘influential’ then what, pray tell, is?

1. Haley Barbour

Wash Post: “Barbour’s Republican Governors Association has become the story of the 2010 midterms. The RGA’s second quarter fundraising numbers – $19 million raised, $40 million on hand – is an eye-popping total that should remind those who have forgotten about Barbour’s reach in the GOP donor community.”
The Savvy: I agree. What can I say? Money is power and power is money. President Lincoln put it another way: “I can make more generals, but horses cost money.”