Susana Martinez
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Diane Denish played down a poll released Wednesday that showed the frontrunner in the Republican primary, Susana Martinez, leading her by six points in a potential general-election contest.
“Susana Martinez has been airing TV ads for weeks, so we take this with a grain of salt,” Denish’s campaign said of the new poll. “When New Mexicans hear from both candidates, the choice will be clear. Diane Denish will be a different kind of governor – someone who stands up for regular families, while Susana Martinez is a failed prosecutor best-known for plea-bargaining drunk drivers and cutting deals with violent felons.”
The reality, however, is that this is what many Democrats been worried about for some time. Martinez, who was unknown around most of the state until recently, has successfully used her record as Doña Ana County’s district attorney to convince voters she’s tough as nails when it comes to criminals and to immigration, but she has a soft side when it comes to victims. So far, people like what they see.
Martinez has also managed to shape public opinion of Allen Weh, Martinez’s closest opponent in the primary – at least as it relates to immigration – which has contributed to her surge in the primary race. Two weeks ago, Martinez and Weh were statistically tied. But on Wednesday, two independent polls showed her with significant leads over Weh.
I’ve already written about the poll conducted for New Mexico Politics With Joe Monahan that showed Martinez up by 11 points. Later Wednesday, KOB-TV in Albuquerque unveiled a SurveyUSA poll that showed Martinez up by 10 points over Weh.
That poll found Martinez with the support of 43 percent of likely GOP primary voters to Weh’s 33 percent. Pete Domenici Jr. and Doug Turner were each at 8 percent and Janice Arnold-Jones was at 3 percent.
Five percent of the 464 people surveyed said they were undecided in the poll, which was conducted between Sunday and Tuesday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percent.
Martinez is riding high
Perhaps even more stunning was Martinez’s 49 percent to 43 percent lead over Denish in a potential general-election contest. That poll, also conducted for KOB-TV, surveyed 1,405 likely general election voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.
Martinez led among men. She led among voters in every age group. She led among Republicans and independents, college graduates and non-college graduates. In other words, Martinez is currently riding high.
Denish led all other GOP candidates in similar polls. You can get more details on the polls here.
I say this is what many Democrats have been worried about because the state Democratic Party was more focused on tearing down Martinez than Weh even before it became clear that Martinez was surging and more likely than Weh to become the GOP nominee. Many believe that, unless some scandal tanks Martinez’s campaign, she’s more likely than Weh to keep up with Denish.
The last two weeks have been great for Martinez, starting with the poll that showed her tied with Weh. That proved that Martinez could keep up in the big leagues.
Martinez then received the endorsement of Sarah Palin.
The tough-as-nails district attorney didn’t wait for Weh to attack – she went for the kill, striking hard against the retired military man with a negative ad accusing him of supporting amnesty.
Those three events appear to have sent the Weh campaign into a panic. Weh initially responded by complaining about the negative attacks from Martinez. Then he hit back hard – but dishonestly – which led to the GOP party chairman publicly denouncing Weh’s ads.
Meanwhile, Martinez picked up the endorsements of the state’s three largest newspapers. While the Weh campaign was flatlining, Martinez was surging.
The honeymoon will end
There’s lots of time before November, however, and if Martinez gets past Tuesday’s primary election the honeymoon will soon end. The Denish campaign was quick to point out that, to date, Martinez has been on the air five weeks longer than Denish and outspent Denish by more than $350,000 on TV ads. The spending discrepancy will soon be reversed.
Martinez has another potential general-election issue. She has presented herself as the more conservative candidate in the primary race, especially with her hard-line stance on immigration. That won’t resonate with many of the moderate voters Martinez will need to win the general election. Many of them may also be turned off by the Palin endorsement.
Denish led among Hispanics in the Denish/Martinez poll, 52 percent to 40 percent. Much has been said about the potential for a Hispanic woman to draw Hispanics to the GOP – and Martinez did better among Hispanics than the other GOP candidates in potential match-ups with Denish – but this is where Martinez’s stance on immigration could come back to haunt her.
For now, however, the Martinez campaign remains focused on getting past Weh. It will worry about Denish later.
Martinez has shown a knack for making shrewd moves that have propelled her from a candidate many called “regional” to the likely GOP nominee. But Denish is formidable. She has $2.7 million on hand, and Martinez will have nothing after Tuesday’s primary.
Martinez is riding a wave right now that, unless Weh finds a way to stop it, will carry her past Tuesday and into a general-election contest with Denish. Denish would be the frontrunner in such a contest, regardless of what Wednesday’s KOB-TV poll found. Martinez’s journey would only get more difficult after the primary.
Martinez would likely give Denish a run for her money. But much of the uncertainty among Democrats comes from the fact that a contest between a Democratic Anglo woman and a Republican Hispanic woman would create a dynamic the state has probably never seen. Who knows what would happen.
The immediate question, however, is whether Martinez can keep the momentum going for a few more days. The next test happens tonight, when the GOP gubernatorial candidates debate live at 7 p.m. on KOB-TV in Albuquerque.