Steve Pearce (Photo by Heath Haussamen)
Stuart Rothenberg also says CD1 race should ‘go down to the wire’
Washington political analyst Stuart Rothenberg has moved the 2nd Congressional District race between Democrat Harry Teague and Republican Steve Pearce from “toss-up” to “lean Republican,” and he thinks the 1st District race is going to be hot as well.
Late last week, Rothenberg wrote on his Rothenberg Political Report that “Substantial Republican gains (in the U.S. House) are inevitable, with net Democratic losses now looking to be at least two dozen. At this point, GOP gains of 25-30 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats certainly seem possible.”
That’s when he moved the 2nd District race slightly in Pearce’s favor.
“We are thrilled to see that the momentum of the Pearce campaign is apparent to people across the country,” Pearce Campaign Manager Alicia Collins said in a news release.
Rothenberg added to his discussion of the Teague/Pearce race today in an article for Congressional Quarterly.
“Republicans seem almost certain to win back at least one of the state’s congressional districts, the 2nd,” he wrote. “… Democrats don’t put up much resistance when Teague’s name appears on “most vulnerable” lists, a clear indication that party strategists understand he has a very difficult path to re-election.”
‘A fighting chance’ in CD1
Rothenberg also writes in the CQ article that Republicans have at least “a fighting chance to take back the 1st district.” Republican Jon Barela is challenging U.S. Rep. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M.
“A year ago, I wouldn’t have given you a nickel for GOP chances against Heinrich,” Rothenberg wrote. “… Heinrich still has to be regarded as the favorite in his bid for re-election, but the change in the national mood and an unusually appealing GOP challenger make this definitely a race to watch.”
“Two years ago, when I interviewed Heinrich during one of his trips to Washington, D.C., I knew that he was the real deal,” Rothenberg wrote. “I got the same feeling after meeting Barela. These are two very good candidates in what has proved to be a very competitive congressional district.”
Rothenberg wrote that he’s reclassifying the race from “Democrat favored” to “Leans Democrat” – a more competitive category – and, “as long as Barela raises enough money to be competitive and the current national mood is unchanged, I’d expect the race in New Mexico’s 1st district to go down to the wire.”