The Roundhouse in Santa Fe (Photo by Heath Haussamen)
After attending the Republican preprimary convention two weeks ago, I fully believe a Republican could occupy the governor’s mansion in January 2011
Two weeks ago I traveled to Albuquerque to attend to the GOP pre-primary convention to lend my support to several of my former Republican colleagues. I was taken aback by the energy displayed by grassroots Republicans at the convention and their passion to elect a Republican governor in November.
After demoralizing defeats up and down the ballot in 2008 and counterproductive in-fighting within the GOP, I was left wondering if anyone could mount a serious challenge to Lt. Gov. Diane Denish in 2010. After attending the convention and seeing impressive performances by most of the candidates, I fully believe that a Republican could occupy the governor’s mansion as early as January 2011.
Any of the five candidates running for the Republican nomination can win in November because, above all, New Mexicans are eager for change in Santa Fe.
Joshua Baca
Each candidate is unique and presents something different to the electorate. Each candidate has the ability to motivate the Republican base and appeal to the independent voters and conservative Democrats needed to win in November. And each appealed the delegates at the convention, which will pay dividends after the primary when the nominee will need a unified Republican Party to win in November.
Each candidate has strengths
Susana Martinez is the clear frontrunner after a convincing victory at the convention. Few gave her a chance at being a serious candidate – myself included. In addition to securing nearly 50 percent of the delegate votes, it was apparent that she made significant inroads in counties like San Juan and Sandoval, which are critical to winning in June and November. As a tough prosecutor, she appeals to voters because of her track record of putting the bad guys away in Las Cruces.
While Allen Weh came in a distant second, he appeals to voters for two reasons: for being a veteran and a successful businessman. He has experience in balancing books and would ensure that Santa Fe lives within its means by making tough choices when it comes to spending. Voters are looking for someone to stand up to House Speaker Ben Luján and the corrupt machine in Santa Fe, and Weh has the leadership to do just that.
Much of the race has focused on Martinez and Weh, but let’s not forget the other candidates who will be on the ballot in June. Doug Turner’s outsider status, youth and platform of bread-and-butter issues – education reform and lower taxes – gives him a good shot at being New Mexico’s next governor. He has the ability to appeal to Republicans – and more importantly independent voters – the same way Sen. Scott Brown did in Massachusetts.
And while most people may have written off State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones and Pete Domenici Jr. as having little or no shot to win in June and November, I have not. Domenici is instantly credible because of his name, and Arnold-Jones is a passionate advocate for New Mexico who has worked to make Santa Fe more transparent. This may be enough to wage a competitive race against Lt. Gov. Denish.
A unified GOP
Each candidate has his or her work cut out for them in the next eight weeks before the primary. The key is that the race remains spirited and positive. My advice to all five candidates is to continue to focus on the issues that are impacting voters’ pocket books and daily lives – the economy and corruption in Santa Fe.
Challenge Lt. Gov. Denish on how she can realistically change Santa Fe when she has been part of the problem for the last eight years. Make the race a referendum on her and the current administration. Most importantly, do not go nuclear on each other to win in June and risk jeopardizing the party’s chance to win in November. Every candidate should pledge to endorse the party’s winner the day after the primary.
Primaries can be a healthy exercise and help the eventual nominee prepare for the battle in the fall. With these impressive candidates and a unified GOP, the nominee has a great shot of winning in November.
The next victim of the trend
Polling by Rasmussen Reports released this past weekend showed the GOP candidates trailing Lt. Gov. Denish anywhere from 10-22 points, and based on this some would put the race in the “solid Democrat” column. I would counter that no one thought Chris Christie or Scott Brown could win deep blue states like New Jersey and Massachusetts.
Lt. Gov. Denish is set to become the next victim of this trend.
Joshua Baca is a former congressional staffer and campaign operative for former U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson and served as a United States Senate page to U.S. Sen. Jeff Bingaman. He is a current public affairs professional and campaign consultant in the Washington, D.C. metro area. Follow Joshua on Twitter at www.twitter.com/beltwaybaca.