Steve Pearce, left, and Harry Teague (Photos by Heath Haussamen)
CD2 remains up in the air; Heinrich has comfortable lead but it’s early; Luján appears surprisingly vulnerable
New polls of the state’s three congressional races show a tight contest in the 2nd Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich with a significant lead over Republican challenger Jon Barela in the 1st District and Democratic Rep. Ben Ray Luján surprisingly vulnerable in the 3rd District.
In the 2nd District – one of the hottest House races in the nation – Republican challenger Steve Pearce leads incumbent Democrat Harry Teague by 2 percentage points, 43-41 percent, with 16 percent undecided.
Teague had the approval of 41 percent of those surveyed, while 36 percent said they disapprove of the job he’s doing and 22 percent said they aren’t sure. Meanwhile, Pearce was viewed favorably by 43 percent and unfavorably by 31 percent, with 26 percent saying they weren’t sure.
The survey of 400 voters was conducted from Feb. 18-20 and has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
Martin Heinrich
In the 1st District race, Heinrich was up 9 percentage points, 45-36 percent, with 19 percent undecided.
Heinrich had the approval of 40 percent of those surveyed, while 38 percent said they disapprove of the job he’s doing and 23 percent said they weren’t sure. Meanwhile, Barela remains largely unknown. He was viewed favorably by 13 percent and unfavorably by 15 percent, with 72 percent saying they were not sure.
In the 3rd District race, Luján was up six points over one of two Republicans vying for the right to take him on in November – Tom Mullins – and eight points over the other – Adam Kokesh. Luján led Kokesh 40-32 percent, with 28 percent undecided, and led Mullins 42-36 percent, with 22 percent undecided.
Ben Ray Luján
Luján had the approval of 31 percent of those surveyed, while 40 percent said they disapprove and 29 percent said they were not sure.
Mullins and Kokesh remain largely unknown. Mullins was viewed favorably by 10 percent and unfavorably by 8 percent, with 81 percent saying they don’t know. Kokesh was viewed favorably by 4 percent and unfavorably by 17 percent, with 79 percent saying they don’t know.
The 3rd District numbers are surprising because it’s an overwhelmingly Democratic district, and a race most people haven’t given much attention.
The 1st and 3rd district surveys had the same sample size and margin of error as the 2nd District poll.
Heinrich, Luján ‘should be good,’ Teague ‘will have a hard time’
The polls were conducted by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling. Despite Luján’s negatives, the polling memo states that he, like Heinrich, should be headed toward re-election.
“… the district’s overwhelmingly Democratic nature should make it easy for (Luján) to overcome that,” the memo states. “Republicans are more unified in their dislike for him than Democrats are in their support.”
“Martin Heinrich and Ben Ray Lujan look like they should be good for reelection,” Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling, said in the memo. “Harry Teague has built a good amount of support given how conservative his district is, but will have a hard time hanging on in this political climate.”
Check out the full polling memo.