Downtown Albuquerque (Photo by cjc4454/flickr.com)
The Albuquerque municipal election could be a key indicator of what’s to come in New Mexico. Here’s how.
For those of us who don’t live in Albuquerque, there are still several reasons why today’s municipal election in the state’s largest city is important. Here are the reasons at the top of the list, at least in my view:
Voter turnout
There were lots of new voters in the Albuquerque area last year who helped propel President Barack Obama and other Democrats to victory. The question since has been whether Obama’s get-out-the-vote efforts in the Albuquerque area were a one-time phenomenon or whether his campaign actually reshaped the electorate in Albuquerque and the state.
The Albuquerque municipal election is the first election since 2008. It’s also the only test of what the electorate in Albuquerque looks like before the 2010 statewide and federal elections.
Will voter turnout be higher in the Albuquerque race than it’s been in the past for municipal elections? Time will tell, but we may have already gotten a big clue. The city clerk told NMPolitics.net’s Peter St. Cyr for an article published today that there were about 3,300 early voters in 2005, and there were more than 10,000 this time around.
If those new voters who propelled Obama to victory in New Mexico last year continue to show up at the polls, expect that to have a dramatic impact on the future of the state.
A glimmer of hope for the GOP
The GOP has taken a beating in New Mexico in recent years and moved closer to the brink of irrelevancy. Republicans know they need to win the governor’s race next year to have a voice in redistricting, or else they risk becoming even less relevant in the Land of Enchantment.
That was the backdrop for the unexpected revelation two weeks ago that Republican Richard J. Berry was in the lead in the mayoral race. That surprise came from an Albuquerque Journal poll.
Now, Republicans from around the state are watching closely. If Berry can hold on to win, could that be the beginning of a GOP resurgence in New Mexico?
Berry had 31 percent of the vote in the poll, and he needs to reach 40 percent today to avoid a runoff.
Can Berry reach 40 percent? If not, can he win a runoff? Both of Berry’s opponents are Democrats, and it’s reasonable to suspect that most of the supporters of either would back the other in a runoff instead of Berry. But, as the poll has already shown, anything can happen in this race.
Did public financing level the playing field?
The other surprise in the Journal poll was the narrow margin separating all three candidates. Some analysts say any of the three could win this race. Public financing is in effect, and all candidates took advantage of it. Did that help strip Mayor Martin Chávez of his incumbency advantage and level the playing field?
I’m not sure, but I know some Republicans who think it helped. That’s interesting because it generally isn’t Republicans in Santa Fe who are looking to expand the public financing system for state elections.
It will be interesting to see, after this election, how much analysts think the public financing system actually did level the playing field, and, if it did, what effect that might have on the push to expand the state’s public financing system.
You see? Interesting things going on in Albuquerque. I’m anxious to see how it all comes out tonight.