With Steve Pearce running for Congress, the biggest question for Republicans right now is whether Heather Wilson is going to run for governor
Is Heather Wilson going to run for governor or not?
That’s the biggest question for New Mexico Republicans, now that former U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce, R-N.M., has decided to try to regain his old seat in Congress instead of running for governor.
Wilson has been saying she’s seriously considering running for governor, but whether she is going to enter the race is a question she isn’t answering right now. She’s currently doing political and elections training for government officials in Sudan and Kenya and writing about her experiences on her Facebook page.
Reached via Facebook on Wednesday, Wilson had this to say when asked about the gubernatorial race:
“Very far from home right now. … In fact, am sitting in my ‘container’ in a camp for aid workers on the bank of the Nile River in Juba, Sudan. I leave in about 20 minutes to do another teaching session with the staff of the Deputy Secretary General of one of the leading parties here on how to run an office. … I go to Kenya tomorrow. May not have e-mail service there and no reliable phone. Will have to answer your questions when I am ‘Out of Africa.’”
While Wilson is staying mum for the time being, others in New Mexico are talking a lot about her potential candidacy. Pollster and political analyst Brian Sanderoff said many Republicans, including potential gubernatorial candidates and business owners who might help fund their campaigns, are waiting to see what Wilson plans to do before they make commitments.
Sanderoff said it made sense for the more moderate Wilson, who lost to the right-wing Pearce in last year’s U.S. Senate primary, to wait for Pearce’s decision before she made her own. Now that Pearce has made his decision, Sanderoff said he suspects that Wilson will “be letting the public know soon what her intentions are, because if she’s not in the race, then the Republican Party needs to start getting behind these (other) candidates and fight it out.”
‘If she jumps in, then I have to make a choice’
The GOP’s Wilson has won several hotly contested battles for the Albuquerque-area 1st Congressional District seat and built a statewide network when she ran for U.S. Senate last year, so conventional wisdom suggests she would be the frontrunner, or at least a formidable opponent, if she decides to enter the race.
The Republican field is already crowded. Albuquerque financial adviser and Army National Guard brigadier general Greg Zanetti has formally announced his candidacy. Former state GOP Chairman Allen Weh and state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones, R-Albuquerque, have formed exploratory committees. Doug Turner, CEO of the Albuquerque-based public relations firm DW Turner, says he’s seriously considering the race.
Arnold-Jones acknowledged that not knowing the plans of Wilson and Pearce was a big factor as she considered forming an exploratory committee. But the uncertainty wasn’t enough to stop her from moving forward, and she formed the committee last month.
“While I think (Wilson) is certainly admirable and formidable, she hasn’t made up her mind and it isn’t clear to me that she is going to choose this race,” Arnold-Jones said. “The one thing the Republican Party needs is candidates, and if we wait, then we will not be competitive with the Democrats.”
“If she jumps in, then I have to make a choice, but until then I’m going to work it hard,” Arnold-Jones said.
Uncertainty about Wilson shouldn’t deter others
New Mexico State University government professor and political analyst Jose Z. Garcia said uncertainty about Wilson’s plans shouldn’t deter other potential candidates, largely because Wilson lost last year’s Senate primary and has never proven that she can win a statewide race.
“While she would be formidable (in a primary), it doesn’t necessarily mean that she would bounce out potentially viable candidates,” Garcia said.
Zanetti has previously acknowledged that he got into the race early because his name recognition was low, and if he wanted to compete in a primary with better-known candidates like Pearce or Wilson he would have to spend more time building an organization.
In a statement released Wednesday by his campaign, Zanetti said Pearce’s decision to run for Congress will benefit “Republicans at all levels” because Pearce can “motivate a conservative base that nobody else could reach.” His only comment on Wilson is that he has no insight into what she’s going to do.
‘A healthy process’
Garcia said the crowded field in the Republican gubernatorial primary is an indication that the GOP is searching for an identity after losing ground in the 2008 election. He called it “a healthy process.”
It’s difficult to identify the best candidate for the Republican Party at this point because the primary is almost a year away, Garcia said. The economy could get better or worse. President Barack Obama’s popularity could go up or down. And, with so many criminal investigations and court cases involving allegations of public corruption pending in New Mexico, Garcia pointed out the possibility of more indictments of Democrats.
“Another few indictments, another few pay-to-play scandals in the state, and it may be cleanup time,” Garcia said. “… This could be very fertile ground for Republicans to win. The question would be, who would you win with?”
Depending on the climate next spring, Garcia said he “could see a dark horse coming out of nowhere and winning” the Republican gubernatorial primary. He pointed to former Gov. Gary Johnson, a Republican who did something similar in the 1990s.
On the Democratic side, the only declared candidate is Lt. Gov. Diane Denish. Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez says he’s formed an exploratory committee as he considers challenging Denish for the nomination, but he hasn’t been very active in the race.