Republicans have, thus far, been unable to capitalize on scandals that have plagued Democrats in New Mexico since 2005. If they can’t find a way to do it next year, and win the governor’s race, they won’t have much of a say in redistricting.
Ever since two state treasurers were arrested on corruption charges in September 2005, Republicans in New Mexico have been trying to capitalize — with election gains — on the Democratic scandals that just keep spreading.
But instead, Republicans have actually lost ground in the New Mexico Legislature and gone from having a majority of seats in the state’s congressional delegation to having none.
With the next round of redistricting taking place early in the next decade, under the watch of a governor who will be elected next year, Republicans are focused intently on the race to replace the term-limited Bill Richardson. Once again, capitalizing on the scandals plaguing the party that controls virtually all of state government appears to be a key to the race.
“While Democrats do not have a patent on political corruption, it is clear that under Democrat control New Mexico now suffers excessively from political corruption,” said Harvey Yates, chairman of the Republican Party of New Mexico. “So the next governor needs to possess the attributes of absolute integrity, a willingness to do what is necessary to cleanse the state of political corruption and the fortitude to persevere until the job is done.”
Already, there’s a scramble for the right to win the top GOP spot on next year’s ballot. Army National Guard Brigadier General Greg Zanetti has declared his candidacy. Former state GOP chairman Allen Weh has formed an exploratory committee. Former U.S. Reps. Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson are among the Republicans actively considering the race, as is state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones.
The only announced Democratic candidate is Lt. Gov. Diane Denish. With a run by actor Val Kilmer appearing unlikely, there’s an increasing chance Denish won’t have a primary battle.
How to beat Denish
So the dialogue among Republicans centers on Denish, who currently has close to $2 million on hand for her campaign. Discussions about how to beat her keep coming back to corruption.
Two former state treasurers, a former deputy insurance superintendent and a former Senate president pro tem have been convicted of corruption-related felonies in recent years. Those currently caught up in controversies — some involving criminal probes – include Richardson, the land commissioner, a public regulation commissioner, the former head of the state’s affordable housing system, the former secretary of state and the Richardson-controlled investment boards.
Almost all are Democrats. That fact, said one Republican strategist who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the subject, is the key to defeating Denish.
“(Denish) can’t be allowed to distance herself from Richardson and the scandals. She needs to own her fair share of the scandals, so voters understand that she’s just offering more of the same,” the strategist said.
In a recent interview with the Albuquerque Journal, Denish was asked “whether she was concerned that voters were fatigued with Richardson and that could hurt her in her bid for chief executive.”
“I don’t want to comment on what I think voters think of Bill Richardson. There’s a lot of things that have been happening, that are under way, that have caused the slippage in his polling numbers. … My future is not what they (voters) think about Bill Richardson,” she said.
Denish added that she is more down-to-earth than Richardson.
“People are very surprised to see me at the grocery store. I was buying something at Dillard’s the other day. … I go to my local restaurants. I walk around my neighborhood,” the Journal quoted her as saying.
Picking the right candidate
New Mexico State University government professor and blogger Jose Z. Garcia, a Democrat, said Republicans have a shot at beating Denish or another Democrat if they can capitalize on the corruption scandals and “Richardson fatigue.” But, he said, they must also present a candidate who’s more likeable.
“New Mexicans tend to vote for the person, not the party, and so that gives Republicans some hope. The problem is they have to find the right person,” he said.
While the Republicans interviewed didn’t want to opine on the current slate of potential candidates, Garcia said Pearce proved with last year’s failed U.S. Senate run that he’s not the right candidate because he’s too conservative. Garcia didn’t have much to say about Weh or Zanetti, but said Wilson and Arnold-Jones might have a chance.
Wilson is the most viable among the group, Garcia said. She matches Denish in name recognition and is experienced, intelligent, articulate and pragmatic. She has another important quality that, Garcia said, Pearce lacks.
“She never got so far into adulation of George Bush that she forgot her constituents,” he said.
Arnold-Jones could be a strong candidate if she focuses on transparency. Garcia noted that she forced webcasting on the state Legislature earlier this year.
“That was a breath of fresh air. An overwhelming amount of Democrats and Republicans alike were just thankful that she had the courage to stand up and do that, so she would have a tremendous amount of credibility in discussing the need for ethics, ethics reform and transparency,” Garcia said.
Other factors
But corruption scandals shouldn’t be the only focus as Republicans pick their candidate, several interviewed for this article said. Farmington doctor Allen McCulloch, a former candidate for U.S. Senate and GOP party chair, said the successful Republican gubernatorial candidate must have the ability to “bring together the key elements of our ‘Big Tent’ — economic conservatives, social conservatives, libertarians — as well as working-class Democrats.”
That candidate, McCulloch said, should oppose labor’s “check card” legislation and a proposed “cap-and-trade” program to regulate carbon emissions. Yates said the successful candidate must also favor cutting the size of government and its level of regulation.
McCulloch also said the GOP and its gubernatorial candidate “must begin by offering real solutions for energy independence, economic recovery, increased access to affordable health care, and to ensure that every child receives a high-quality education.”
W. Ron Camuñez, an active Republican and blogger in Las Cruces, said his party will continue to lose elections unless it gets past “the two polarizing issues of abortion and gay marriage.” He said the party must increase involvement among Hispanics, moderates and young people.
Richardson’s 2002 and 2006 campaigns were successful, Camuñez said, because he was able to reach moderate Hispanics in both parties.
A GOP victory or a ‘funeral procession?’
Still, with Camuñez and others, the discussion comes back to corruption.
“It is imperative that those who are planning to seek nominations for governor of New Mexico should be individuals of the highest character, be a person who will and can work with members of the opposite party to bring credibility, honesty and transparency to a state that is in much need of new and positive direction,” Camuñez said.
The GOP is still licking its wounds from last year’s divisive primaries, including the nasty battle between Pearce and Wilson. McCulloch said he hopes a gubernatorial candidate “can emerge unscathed from the circular firing squad that is the hallmark of today’s Republican primaries.”
The unnamed GOP strategist said the next few months will be critical. A GOP candidate who can attract Hispanics, independents and moderate women should step forward; party leaders “must do everything within their power to clear the field and avoid a costly and divisive primary;” and the party must raise the money it needs to focus on tying Denish to corruption.
“If the GOP nominee and state party are both broke in June (2010) and haven’t laid a glove on Denish, then it won’t much matter who we nominate — it will be a funeral procession,” the GOP strategist said.