Republican 2nd Congressional District candidate Ed Tinsley has cancelled his broadcast television ad buys in the
Two sources with knowledge of the situation confirmed today that Tinsley’s last broadcast television advertising is scheduled to run Monday after he canceled the final week of his previously scheduled buys. The election is a week from Tuesday.
Tinsley spokesman Jim Pettit wouldn’t directly confirm the cancellation of the ad buys, but he said the campaign is “increasing our media buy 50 percent district-wide in a strategic shift that emphasizes targeted advertising to reach selected demographic groups.”
“While we can’t discuss specific tactics, our research shows the need for specific messages best achieved through targeted media buys,” Pettit said.
Conventional wisdom suggests that candidates’ most effective way to reach the largest number of voters is through broadcast television, which is more expensive than cable but reaches a wider audience. Pettit hasn’t provided a response to a follow-up e-mail asking whether the campaign is shifting its dollars from broadcast television to cable television or radio.
The
Tinsley’s Democratic opponent, Harry Teague, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Neither did the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which is spending $1.2 million to help Teague get elected. In addition to the help from the DCCC, Teague is up on broadcast and cable television with his own ads.
By comparison, the DCCC’s Republican counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee, has spent $42,000 on Tinsley’s behalf.
The move by the Tinsley campaign comes on a day that news leaked of an internal memo called a “death list” being circulated among House Republicans that predicts the GOP could lose 34 seats in the House on Nov. 4. It rates the 2nd District race as being a toss-up, which matches is what several independent analysts have also said.
There have been only two polls released publicly of the 2nd District race. The most recent, conducted by Research 2000 for DailyKos, had Teague leading 47 percent to 43 percent. The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted Sept. 30 and Oct. 1 and has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.
The second, a Teague campaign internal poll, had Teague leading 46 percent to 41 percent. The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted between Sept. 2 and 5 and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.