Pundits figure out that 2nd District race is hot

National pundits have begun to realize what many living in southern New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District have known for months: The race to replace Steve Pearce in Congress is hot.

Cook Political Report today changed its ranking of the race from “lean Republican” to “toss up.” The report mentions a recently released internal poll from Democratic candidate Harry Teague that has him leading Republican Ed Tinsley by 5 percentage points. Though the poll is a month old and was conducted before Tinsley started advertising on television, it’s the only polling on the race that has been released publicly.

“While this district’s conservatism should provide Tinsley a boost, insiders say he has run a less than perfect campaign. At an August forum, Tinsley went off message when he said that Teague wanted to ‘cut (troops) throats’ by cutting off funding for the war,” Cook Political Report stated in a posting about today’s rankings change. “Meanwhile, Teague has tied his business credentials to the district’s roots, emphasizing his direct experience with oil and the issue of energy. … Democrats may still have a better shot at picking up the politically friendlier 1st CD open seat, but this is now a top tier race as well.”

In addition, the Washington publication Roll Call ran an article today calling the race “surprisingly close.”

“In the race for New Mexico’s open 2nd district that wealthy restaurateur Ed Tinsley (R) has been widely expected to win, should he in fact be considered the underdog?” the article asks. “Tinsley’s Democratic opponent Harry Teague, and New Mexico Democrats generally, won’t go so far as to make such a claim. But they are brimming with confidence, suggesting it’s fine with them if others do.”

Rs and Ds share opinions

The article states that Republicans “familiar with this race did not necessarily dispute Teague’s poll numbers. But they said the Democrat has serious political problems on the issues of greatest concern to 2nd district voters, and they expect Tinsley to benefit accordingly as the campaign enters its final stretch — particularly in a presidential year in which the GOP presidential nominee is expected to win southern New Mexico handily.”

Democrats following the race, according to the article, “chalk up Teague’s competitiveness to his profile and Tinsley’s, at times, poorly run campaign.”

What’s so great about Teague? According to the article, he “is a business owner — apparently beloved by his employees — and based in Lea County, considered key over the years to winning the 2nd district.” Tinsley, meanwhile, is “likeable, and on some of the issues that matter most to voters — like the Iraq War, energy and the Second Amendment — is positioned further to the right than Teague and therefore more in line with the 2nd district electorate,” the article states.

But the article refers to Tinsley’s shifts in campaign managers in stating that his campaign has, at times, “been unfocused and beset by missteps.” Teague’s campaign, while a “less-than-stellar operation” during the primary, “has been smooth sailing” since Teague replaced his campaign manager shortly after the primary, the article states.

The money

Money is also a factor. The Tinsley campaign told Roll Call that Teague has dramatically outspent Tinsley, although new finance reports for the last three months won’t be available for another week or two. Tinsley’s campaign confirmed today that Tinsley has contributed $500,000 to his campaign during the general election. That’s on top of the $235,000 he contributed during the primary.

Teague contributed $764,572 to his campaign during the primary. A spokesman refused to comment today on whether Teague has added to that total during the general election.

Another reason Teague is competitive: Third-party groups backing him have been active in attacking Tinsley on television and in mailers.

Timothy P. Carney, an analyst for Human Events, wrote today that, while Republicans should hold on to the 1st Congressional District seat, “Democrats should pick up the seat of Rep. Steve Pearce.”

Time will tell.