It appears that Barack Obama and John McCain believe New Mexico’s five electoral votes hinge on what happens in the southern region of the state on Nov. 4.
With visits to the south by Joe Biden, Sarah Palin, Bill Richardson, McCain and Hillary Clinton, the Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns are focusing on the south in the home stretch of the battle for New Mexico. That appears to mirror a national shift as Obama goes on the offensive in traditionally conservative areas.
Richardson said there’s a good reason to focus on the south.
“Southern New Mexico, with Las Cruces as its center, now becomes the battleground and a must-win for John McCain,” Richardson said. “If he ties or loses narrowly there, the race is over and Obama wins the state.”
Why? Polls show Obama leading by several percentage points in New Mexico. The campaigns are vying for the same voters — the 5-8 percent who are undecided and the conservative, largely Hispanic Democrats who helped Clinton carry Doña Ana County and southern New Mexico over Obama in the Feb. 5 primary. That’s according to political analyst and New Mexico State University government professor Jose Z. Garcia.
“There are a number of Hispanics who were for Clinton who never warmed up to Obama and, I think, on the other hand are not happy with the McCain campaign, they’re not happy with Palin necessarily, and yet they just haven’t been quite coaxed into the Obama camp,” said Garcia, who is an active Democrat.
Enter Biden, who was in Mesilla on Friday. Palin was in Roswell on Sunday. Richardson spent Saturday at get-out-the-vote rallies around southern New Mexico. McCain plans to hold a rally in Mesilla this coming Saturday. Clinton will also be in southern New Mexico on Saturday to campaign for Obama. Though the campaign hasn’t released additional details about Clinton’s visit, well-connected Democrats believe she will be in Doña Ana County on the same day that McCain comes here.
Clinton is also scheduled to appear from noon to 3 p.m. on Saturday at an event in Canutillo, which is on the Texas side of the border but still in the region that includes southern Doña Ana County. That visit is being reported on by KVIA-TV in El Paso, but whether the event is a rally for Obama isn’t clear, and the campaign isn’t commenting.
Obama on the offensive
To this point, Obama and McCain have both paid some attention to southern New Mexico by sending surrogates to the region. And each candidate has visited Las Cruces once — Obama in May for an invitation-only event and McCain in August for a small public rally — but each candidate has focused most of his own time during visits to New Mexico in the Albuquerque/Santa Fe area.
The shift to the south comes as Obama has climbed ahead of McCain in polls of New Mexico and other swing states. Because of that, Obama is going on the offensive, moving into areas that trend toward Republicans and forcing McCain to play defense there.
Southern New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District is one of those red regions. A recent Research 2000 poll conducted for Daily Kos has McCain leading in the district by 7 percentage points with a 5-point margin of error. An Albuquerque Journal poll doesn’t break down the numbers by congressional district, but has McCain leading by 41 points on the conservative east side of the state and by 20 points in the south. The south is in the 2nd District, as is a portion of the eastern side of the state. That poll had a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.
But the 2nd District race between Democrat Harry Teague and Republican Ed Tinsley is an indicator that even voters in the conservative southern region of the state are trending to the left this year. Polls have shown that Teague has a slight lead in the race for a House seat that hasn’t been held by a Democrat in 28 years.
‘Southern New Mexico is highly competitive’
Brian Colón, chairman of the Democratic Party of New Mexico, said it should come as no surprise that the presidential campaigns are focusing on the south.
“The media is starting to realize what Democrats have known since 2006, when Gov. Richardson won the south with a large margin,” Colón said. “Southern New Mexico is highly competitive and, with the help of a strong Democratic ticket with Harry Teague and Tom Udall on the ballot, southern New Mexico will play an important role in electing Sen. Obama as the next president of the United States.”
Clinton’s supporters have long been one of the keys to southern New Mexico. In the primary, Obama narrowly won northern New Mexico’s 3rd District and the Albuquerque-area 1st District, but Clinton easily won the more conservative 2nd District in southern New Mexico by several thousand votes, which propelled her to a statewide victory of 1,709 votes out of about 150,000 cast.
In Doña Ana County — the most populous in the 2nd District and a Democratic stronghold — Clinton easily won by about 1,200 votes out of almost 9,500 cast. The conservative Democratic voters who propelled her to victory don’t agree with McCain on some issues, but they are also more conservative than Obama.
Clinton has been similarly important to Obama’s chances in conservative, Hispanic Democratic areas in northern New Mexico like Rio Arriba County. She visited that county for Obama in August. Obama made his own trip to Española in September.
Doña Ana County’s south valley
Garcia recently authored a commentary arguing that Obama needs to visit southern Doña Ana County before the Nov. 4 election, and he reiterated the region’s importance for Obama in today’s interview. He said Obama was attempting to reach 30,000 Hispanic voters in Rio Arriba County, but in Doña Ana County he would be reaching out to 130,000.
The traditionally ignored south valley is an area where turnout could be fairly low if Obama doesn’t visit, but fairly high if he does, Garcia said, so an Obama visit to Sunland Park or Anthony would provide the candidate with more of a bounce than a stop in any other area in southern New Mexico.
“Largely, these are people who are predisposed to voting Democrat, although they have voted Republican in congressional races and other races,” Garcia said. “Hispanics are clearly going to support Obama, but the question is, how big is the margin? Hispanics who voted for Hillary who aren’t yet enthused about Obama, that’s what these visits are all about.”
Obama campaign spokesman Carlos Sanchez said Doña Ana County “is critical to the success of the Obama-Biden campaign in New Mexico.”
“We are leaving no stone unturned as we make our case to southern New Mexicans about why Barack Obama is the only candidate that can bring change to hard-working families,” Sanchez said. “We know that every part of New Mexico is important and essential to winning this election in November, and that is why have 39 offices statewide and a strong presence in Doña Ana County.”
In the county, the Obama campaign has offices in Las Cruces, Anthony and Hatch.
The McCain campaign and Republican Party didn’t provide comment for this article beyond releasing a statement disputing a CNN report that McCain is giving up on New Mexico.
“We see the race tightening both internally and in public polling,” read the statement from McCain spokeswoman Jill Hazelbaker. “We are within striking distance in the key battleground states we need to win.”
A prior version of this posting incorrectly stated that Clinton was scheduled to appear at 3 p.m. in Canutillo.
It appears that Barack Obama and John McCain believe 
Why? Polls show Obama leading by several percentage points in