This article has been updated.
Democrat Martin Heinrich leads Republican Darren White by 2 percentage points in a new poll of the 1st Congressional District race, while another new poll adds to the evidence of a potential blowout in the U.S. Senate race.
The Albuquerque Journal poll released today has Heinrich leading 43 percent to 41 percent with 16 percent undecided. The poll, conducted by Research and Polling, Inc. for the Journal, was conducted Sept. 29 to Oct. 2 and has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points, so Heinrich’s lead is well within the margin.
Brian Sanderoff, who runs Research and Polling, told the Journal that the poll indicates that Republicans are more likely to be committed to White than Democrats are to Heinrich. That isn’t a surprise. A majority of the district’s registered voters are Democrats, but a Democrat has never held the seat. In the poll, 11 percent of Republicans favored Heinrich, while 16 percent of Democrats favored White.
Independents are the reason Heinrich has a lead: 47 percent picked him, while 31 percent picked White. Some 22 percent of independents remain undecided. Heinrich also led among Hispanics, 51 percent to 32 percent, with 17 percent undecided.
The Journal poll matches with a couple of other recent polls that showed Heinrich with a slight lead over White.
Meanwhile, a second poll Research and Polling conducted for the Journal shows Democrat Tom Udall with a 51 percent to 36 percent lead over Republican Steve Pearce in the U.S. Senate race.
The poll was conducted at the same time and had the same margin or error as the 1st District poll. Pearce’s problem?
Independents favored Udall 54 percent to 28 percent in the poll, with 18 percent undecided. Hispanics favored Udall 66 percent to 14 percent, with 19 percent undecided.
Polls have repeatedly shown Udall with a double-digit lead over Pearce in recent weeks.
Update, 1:45 p.m.
I neglected to report earlier that the Journal also polled the 3rd Congressional District race. According to the poll, Democrat Ben Ray Luján has 41 percent of the vote to Republican Dan East’s 18 percent and independent Carol Miller’s 14 percent. Some 27 percent were undecided in the poll, which surveyed only 136 registered voters and had a margin of error of 8.4 percentage points.