New polls are good news for Obama, Udall, Teague

Several new, independent polls have Democrats leading in New Mexico’s presidential, U.S. Senate and 2nd Congressional District races.

In the presidential race, two new polls show Democrat Barack Obama maintaining a lead over Republican John McCain. A Survey USA poll released Wednesday had Obama leading McCain by eight percentage points, 52 percent to 44 percent. That’s similar to the results of other recent polls.

The survey of 689 likely voters was conducted Monday and Tuesday and has a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.

Meanwhile, a Rasmussen Reports poll released Thursday has Obama ahead by 5 points, 49 percent to 44 percent. The telephone survey of 700 likely voters was conducted Wednesday and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

In the U.S. Senate race, a Survey USA poll has Democrat Tom Udall leading Republican Steve Pearce by 19 points, 58 percent to 39 percent. The survey of 698 likely voters was conducted Monday and Tuesday and has a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.

And a Rasmussen Reports poll released at the same time as the group’s presidential poll has Udall leading 55 percent to 41 percent. The telephone survey of 700 likely voters was conducted Wednesday and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Both polls continue the trend of showing Udall increasing his lead over Pearce after the Republican cut the race to single digits several weeks ago.

Perhaps the most interesting new poll is one that shows Democrat Harry Teague leading Republican Ed Tinsley in the 2nd District race by 4 points, 47 percent to 43 percent, with 10 percent undecided. It comes on the heels of a Teague internal poll that had the Democrat leading by 5 points.

The new poll, conducted by Research 2000 for DailyKos, was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday. The survey of 400 likely voters has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

The poll is interesting because it’s the first independent poll (even though it was conducted for the liberal DailyKos) to show Teague leading. It’s even more interesting because of another question that was asked of those surveyed that found that McCain is leading Obama by only 7 percentage points in the 2nd District.

Here’s the question that was asked: “If the election for president were held today, would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

McCain needs to win by a much bigger margin than 7 points in the 2nd District to win New Mexico. Though his lead — at least according to this poll — isn’t as big as it needs to be, it’s worth noting that McCain was leading in every category of voters surveyed except Democrats. Among men, he led by 12 points in the 2nd District in the poll. Among women, McCain led by 2 points. He also led among independents by seven points and led Obama in every age group. He even led among young people by 1 point, 46 percent to 45 percent.