When Sen. Pete Domenici announced his retirement a year ago and triggered a domino effect that has made New Mexico one of the most hotly contested states in the 2008 election, who would have thought that Democrats might win the state’s five electoral votes in the presidential race, Domenici’s Senate seat and all three open seats in the U.S. House?
Not me. I said as much on my blog and during radio and newspaper interviews. Republicans appeared poised to compete vigorously in all federal races in
But it’s become clear that
A number of recent polls confirm that Barack Obama has pulled ahead in
Perhaps most surprising is that, in the conservative 2nd District of southern
What’s going on?
• Obama has a level of grassroots organization in
• On a statewide level, New Mexicans generally like electing Democrats or moderate Republicans. Pearce is neither.
• White may not have been as active this summer as he needed to be, and Heinrich is riding the progressive wave that led to three challengers toppling Democratic incumbents this summer in state legislative primary races in the
• Teague is a conservative Democrat and an oil man, and he’s from the “Little Texas” corner of
It’s all about the economy
But none of that should add up to a purple state turning blue. There’s an overarching reason
Health care and Iraq are among the issues that have helped the Democrats compete so heavily even in places where they might not normally — like New Mexico’s 2nd District — but those issues are all currently being drowned out by the economic crisis, which is leading the American public to shift even further to the left.
New
But people are still suffering. High gas and food prices are hitting their pocketbooks. Their retirement plans and investments are losing value. So are their homes. Unemployment is rising, though it’s lower than the national average. Many with good credit can’t take out a loan to buy a new car or help fund a small business. The economy here is bad, just as it is everywhere.
That’s the reason Obama has climbed past John McCain not only in surveys of
That’s not to say the Republicans can’t win some of these races. But it doesn’t appear that the economy is going to be in any better shape on Election Day than it is today. McCain is going to have to focus on the economy rather than trying to turn voters against Obama with unrelated, negative attacks. And the GOP candidates in