Even after Thursday’s visit by Barack Obama to Española, expect the Democratic presidential nominee and his running mate, Joe Biden, to be in New Mexico again before the Nov. 4 election.
But it’s personal contact by people who live in New Mexico and support Obama that is critical to his chances of winning the state and the presidential race, Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe said today.
“We’re going to organize in every corner of New Mexico,” Plouffe said on a conference call with reporters. He added that the campaign has a strong staff in New Mexico but the focus is on volunteers — “people from communities in New Mexico representing our campaign and being the face of the campaign and doing a lot of the work.”
“We’re big believers in that local-based organizing,” Plouffe said, adding that the campaign has 35 offices in New Mexico, which he said is a level of activity sometimes seen in gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races, but not historically seen in one state by a presidential campaign.
Such organization and activity is a big reason, Plouffe claimed, that Hispanics in New Mexico have become “more like a base for us than a swing group.”
“We’re doing very well right now with the Hispanic community in New Mexico,” he said. “It’s one of the reasons we feel so confident in New Mexico.”
Plouffe, as he has done in the past, said New Mexico is a critical state for Obama. Winning every state Democratic nominee John Kerry won in 2004 gets Obama to 252 electoral votes, but he needs 18 more to win, “and we think New Mexico is right at the top of that list.”
“We think it’s one of the Bush states from 2004 that’s most likely to flip,” he said.
Ivette Barajas, spokeswoman for Republican presidential nominee John McCain, disagreed.
“John McCain will do very well in New Mexico. He comes from a border state and therefore understands the needs of New Mexico working families,” she said. “McCain’s economic policies embrace the small-business owners, entrepreneurs and every hard-working New Mexican. Obama, fresh off his $28,500-per-plate, celebrity filled fundraiser in Beverly Hills, will be bringing empty promises and more of the same rhetoric to New Mexico on Thursday.”
Arizona as a key indicator?
Plouffe, in addition to mentioning Hispanics, said the Obama campaign is intentionally targeting American Indians in New Mexico and expects results from that. And he said there’s another big indicator that McCain is struggling in the West, despite the fact that he and his running mate Sarah Palin are from western states.
“Sen. McCain is struggling vitally in his own state, not leading us by much there despite the fact that we are not advertising there, so we are watching Arizona closely,” he said.
One recent poll has McCain leading Obama by 10 points in Arizona.
Plouffe said the race in Arizona is indicative of a greater reality: Western voters are independent, and independents are “even more sour” on Washington than other voters. He said McCain will lose the “change” argument to Obama in part because the McCain campaign employs a number of Washington lobbyists.
“He’s much more Washington than he is Arizona these days,” Plouffe said of McCain.
The race will come down to two things, Plouffe said: who can win over undecideds and “soft supporters” of the other candidate, and who can more effectively turnout his supporters to vote. Plouffe said McCain has done a lot in recent days to excite the GOP base, but he’s doing little to expand that base past the level of support President Bush won in 2004.
Meanwhile, he said, Obama is well on his way to expanding his base of support beyond what Kerry won in 2004. That is why the campaign is confident.
Obama will return to New Mexico and Biden will be in the state before the election, Plouffe said. But he didn’t release specifics about where or when.
“We obviously know that one of Barack Obama’s strengths is he goes after voters in every corner of every state,” he said. “… Some of those are base areas for us where we’re really trying to drive up turnout. Other areas are swing areas. … We’re trying to talk to every single voter in the state that we think may be supportive to Barack Obama.”
You can listen to the 18-minute conference call, recorded by 770-KKOB radio reporter Peter St. Cyr, by clicking here.
Even after Thursday’s visit by Barack Obama to Española, expect the Democratic presidential nominee and his running mate, Joe Biden, to be in