Southern N.M. Dems are critical to 2008 election

By Heath Haussamen

There’s a rare breed of Democrat in southern New Mexico that makes the region the place to watch in New Mexico in the 2008 election.

Those conservative Democrats who have a history of voting for Republicans will decide who wins the 2nd Congressional District race between Democrat Harry Teague and Republican Ed Tinsley. Were the U.S. Senate race between Democrat Tom Udall and Republican Steve Pearce to get interesting — Udall is currently way ahead of Pearce – those Democrats would be a major factor. And those Democrats — who gave Hillary Clinton the win in New Mexico’s Feb. 5 caucus — will probably be the deciding factor in whether Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain wins New Mexico in the presidential race.

As is the case in the other congressional districts in New Mexico, the majority of voters in the 2nd Congressional District — 48 percent — are Democrats, while only 35 percent are Republicans. Almost half — 47 percent — of the people who live in the district are Hispanic.

And yet, since 1980 the district, which essentially encompasses the southern half of the state, has been a Republican stronghold. The current representative, Pearce, is one of the most conservative members of Congress. He won 60 percent of the vote in both 2004 and 2006.

The district’s geography adds to its unusual nature. It’s the eighth largest in the nation — bigger than the state of Pennsylvania — yet it contains no media market. Most counties in the district get their television from Albuquerque, located just outside the district’s northern boundary, but Doña Ana, the most populous county, gets its television from El Paso, located just outside the district’s southern boundary. Some 30 percent of the district’s registered voters live in Doña Ana County.

The size and split media markets mean the district is disjointed. The west side of the district, which includes the population center of Las Cruces, tends to be more liberal, while the conservative east side, the center of the state’s oil and gas industry, is commonly referred to as Little Texas.

The district’s oil giants make up a powerful lobby that feeds the New Mexico economy and has a great deal of influence in Washington. The Republican-friendly Yates family of the 2nd District controlled a quarter of all federal lands leased for oil and gas development in the continental United States in 2004, according to The Associated Press.

Supporters of Clinton and Pearce

Perhaps the most interesting fact about the district in 2008, however, is the result of the Feb. 5 Democratic caucus. Obama narrowly won the state’s other congressional districts, but he lost the 2nd District to Clinton by 15 percentage points. That was enough to give Clinton a statewide victory.

Those Democrats who gave New Mexico to Clinton and who gave Pearce easy victories against Democratic opponents in 2004 and 2006 are now up for grabs. They proved on Feb. 5 that they can make the difference in a statewide race. They are willing and may even prefer to cross party lines when they vote.

Who are these Democrats? It’s difficult to fit them into a box. It’s only anecdotal, and these are nothing more than generalizations, but my journalistic experience is that many are pro-military because the southern New Mexico economy is largely dependent on the defense industry. Most didn’t come around to opposing the Iraq war as quickly as other Democrats, and some still support the war.

Many tend to favor a conservative view of the Second Amendment. They take more moderate or conservative stances on immigration than their party. Often they’re pro-life and opposed to gay marriage.

Then why are they Democrats? A significant number are Hispanic and, until recently, Democrats simply paid better attention to Hispanics. In addition, many I’ve spoken with like some government-assistance programs. Many are pro-union. Though they aren’t liberal environmentalists, they like the open space around them and want to take care of the land.

A swing region

This year, the oil man in the 2nd District race is the Democrat, Teague. That’s one of many reasons Democrats have a realistic chance to win control of the House seat for the first time in 28 years.

In the presidential race, national polls suggest that Obama has a huge lead over McCain among Hispanics. I would suggest that southern New Mexico is a place where that isn’t the case. Many of these unusual Democrats fit somewhere between Pearce and Clinton as far as policy and politics, and Obama is further to the left than Clinton. Obama should win the rest of the state, but he is going to have a difficult time emerging victorious in southern New Mexico.

It’s a Democratic year, and Obama can win southern New Mexico. But he’s going to have to work hard to do it. As Feb. 5 proved, an Obama loss in southern New Mexico could hand the state’s five electoral votes to McCain.