New NM poll finds Obama leading, Nader a factor

A new poll suggests that Barack Obama is picking up support in New Mexico and that independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader may be a factor here.

The TIME/CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, released Wednesday, had Obama leading John McCain by 13 points in New Mexico — 53 percent to 40 percent — when no other candidates were added into the mix. When Nader and other minor-party candidates were added in, 50 percent said they support Obama, 36 percent said they support McCain and 8 percent said they support Nader.

The survey of 659 registered voters was conducted Sunday through Tuesday and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

The poll also looked at other Western states and found Obama with a 5-point lead in Nevada and McCain with a 1-point lead in Colorado when the other candidates weren’t considered. When Nader and others were factored in, McCain led by 1 point in Colorado, while the two were tied in Nevada.

Those other candidates — Nader, Libertarian Bob Barr and Green Cynthia McKinney — are all expected to appear on the ballot in New Mexico in November.

Nader, the poll found, was a factor in all three Western states and Pennsylvania, the other state in which the survey was conducted. He was at 6 percent in Nevada and 7 percent in Colorado and Pennsylvania.

While Nader drew support largely from Obama in the Nevada poll, a TIME Magazine article on the poll states, Nader drew votes “almost equally” from Obama and McCain in New Mexico, and in Pennsylvania he “siphoned off significant support from McCain.”

Nader touted the poll’s results in a campaign e-mail.

“Ralph just polled 8 percent in New Mexico. It is just remarkable,” the e-mail states. “… We’re scheduled to be on 45 state ballots by September 12. And we’re ready to rumble.”

Most other recent New Mexico polls have shown Obama with a slight lead in New Mexico, but one recent poll showed McCain with a narrow advantage. Most polls haven’t considered Nader and the minor-party candidates.

Meanwhile, McCain is out with a new TV ad today in New Mexico and other states taking a break from the back-and-forth to congratulate Obama for winning the Democratic nomination. Here it is: