N.M. GOP needs to prepare for 2010, redistricting

Many Republicans are already beginning to think past 2008 — a year that could be dismal for them — to 2010 and a chance to regain power in Washington by winning greater influence in the next decade’s redistricting process.

In New Mexico, there’s another reason Republicans should be thinking about 2010 and redistricting. If they don’t win the gubernatorial race or greater influence in the state House, Democrats will likely grab even greater control of state government through redistricting.

According to the Huffington Post’s Sam Stein, focusing on 2010 and redistricting is the GOP’s contingency plan for what many expect will be a further loss of influence in Congress this year. Many believe the party’s best chance at retaking Congress may come by first winning back a majority of governorships in 2010, because redistricting takes place at the state level.

Democrats currently hold 28 of 50 governorships.

“The 2010 elections are almost as important or equally important as the elections this year,” Chris Schrimpf, a spokesman for the Republican Governors Association, told the Huffington Post. “We could feasibly see 25 to 30 congressional seats swing as the result of redistricting.”

The GOP currently holds three of five seats in Congress from New Mexico, but it’s likely to lose ground this year. Because of U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici’s retirement, the GOP has to defend all three seats without incumbents. In a Democratic year, it’s likely the GOP will lose at least one of those seats and it’s possible, albeit unlikely, that it could lose them all.

The GOP has been able to hold two U.S. House seats in New Mexico for years despite the fact that a majority of registered voters in both districts are Democrats. If it loses one or both seats, the GOP might want to push for a redistricting deal that would create a Republican majority in one district.

But it’s at the state level that the GOP should be most concerned. Democrats have largely controlled state government for decades. The fear among many Republicans is that, if the GOP doesn’t have a stronger voice in redistricting, Democrats will do what the GOP did in Texas several years ago and further redistrict the minority party out of the state.

Attempt in 2006 failed

The GOP’s attempt in 2006 to begin making gains in advance of redistricting in the next decade fell flat.

That year, the GOP poured lots of money into targeted state House races to try to begin the long climb toward greater influence. New Mexico is a swing state that has drawn national attention in recent years, and in 2006 the state GOP received a lot of help from Bob Perry, the Texas homebuilder who funded the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth’s 2004 campaign against Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry.

Perry, who had also given almost $240,000 to the 2002 gubernatorial campaign of Republican John Sanchez, pumped $160,000 into the campaigns of the GOP nominees for several statewide races in New Mexico in 2006. He also gave $70,000 to the state party and $20,000 to a Republican state House candidate from Doña Ana County.

It didn’t work: Republicans needed to gain three seats in the state House to have greater influence in the legislative process. They took three from Democrats, but lost three others and gained nothing.

They also didn’t pick up any additional statewide offices, despite Perry’s help. The only victory Republicans could claim was that they held off the wave that led to Democratic gains across the nation.

Every state legislative seat is up for grabs this year, and Republicans will again try to make gains, but there’s still a Democratic wave, and progressive Democrats, not Republicans, have momentum from surprising victories in recent elections in Albuquerque and Las Cruces.

On to 2010

So the GOP is likely going to have to make a stand in 2010 by attempting to win the gubernatorial race or making significant gains in the state House. The GOP’s chances at winning the gubernatorial race aren’t yet clear. There isn’t an obvious GOP candidate.

U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson, who just lost the U.S. Senate primary, is mentioned as one possibility. So are U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce if he loses this year’s Senate race and Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White if he loses his congressional race.

Another potential candidate is the only statewide Republican official, Land Commissioner Pat Lyons. He can’t seek re-election in 2010 because of term limits but has already been raising money for an unspecified race; however, he’s embroiled in a scandal over his ties to a Las Cruces developer and controversial land deals.

One politico who is sometimes mentioned as a dark-horse candidate is Doña Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez, a Hispanic Republican who has won re-election enough times in a Democratic county that the Dems didn’t even bother to run a candidate against her this year.

Meanwhile, Democratic Lt. Gov. Diane Denish has been running her own 2010 gubernatorial campaign for some time and should have a huge fundraising advantage over the GOP candidate, assuming she doesn’t face a credible primary challenge. And there’s a possibility that Gov. Bill Richardson will take a Washington job next year and Denish will become governor, giving her the advantage of incumbency in 2010.

But first…

Before it can truly begin to focus on 2010, however, the GOP has to defend one U.S. Senate seat and two U.S. House seats this year without incumbents and try to at least hold the line against the Democratic wave at the state level.

Perry has again chipped in by giving $125,000 to the state GOP last month. Will it help? Time will tell.