Either candidate could win 2nd District race

A reporter for a Washington, D.C. publication asked me on Wednesday whether I disagreed with her publication’s listing of New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District seat as “safe Republican” in the 2008 election.

I do disagree. There are a lot of reasons why.

For starters, there’s a Democratic wave. Eight years of the current administration has most Americans fed up with the Republican Party. Quite simply, Americans want change.

But that’s true across the nation, and it alone isn’t enough to give Democrat Harry Teague a chance to take back a seat Republicans have held since 1980. Here are some other reasons that Teague has a realistic shot at beating Republican Ed Tinsley:

• Las Cruces, a left-leaning city, has grown by about 10,000 people since the last time the seat was open in 2002. It’s the largest city in the district and its growth pulls some influence away from the conservative oil patch on the eastern side of the district. Progressives who recently took over the city council are organized and motivated.

• Teague is from Hobbs and is an oilman. That’s huge in a district in which oil is so important. He’ll win some conservative east-side support because of his profession. Tinsley, meanwhile, claims residence in the small town of Capitan. He doesn’t have a strong base of support, if for no other reason than simply because that home is located in a less populated and influential area.

• Teague has displayed a stronger ability to raise money from people living in the 2nd District than Tinsley. The majority of Tinsley’s contributions during the last reporting period came from out of the district.

• The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee takes the race seriously, and has committed $1.2 million to TV advertising in the race in September and October. By contrast, it’s spending $1.3 million in the always-contested 1st Congressional District race. Because of a huge fundraising deficit, the Republican counterpart to the DCCC won’t be able to provide the same boost to Tinsley, so the DCCC’s advertising will have a tangible impact.

But none of that means Teague is favored to win. This is still a conservative district in which the majority of registered voters are Democrats but the far-right Republican Steve Pearce won 60 percent of the vote in 2006. Both candidates have negatives. Teague is perhaps vulnerable because of a sexual-harassment lawsuit against his company, but Tinsley is vulnerable because of a home he owns in Santa Fe.

Both have strengths and weaknesses. Tinsley is articulate and good in front of a crowd, while Teague is not. Teague is, however, more personable and likeable than Tinsley.

What will it take?

Both candidates ran strong primary campaigns and should perform well in the general election. But Teague’s biggest weakness is debating. During the primary, the more he appeared in public with opponent Bill McCamley, the more people supported McCamley, which is why Teague limited joint appearances toward the end.

Tinsley has challenged Teague to attend joint town-hall meetings in every county in the district. Teague has agreed only to attend three forums with Tinsley. If Tinsley can draw Teague into more, he increases his chances of winning.

Teague, meanwhile, needs to reach out to McCamley’s supporters. Just as there was a bitter Clinton/Obama split after the primary, there was a deep Teague/McCamley split among Democrats in the 2nd District. Teague will need to reach out to the 48 percent of Dems who supported his opponent if he wants to win.

Anything could happen before November, and the presidential and U.S. Senate races will certainly have an impact on the 2nd District race. But, today, I’d say either candidate could win the 2nd District race. I might give Tinsley a slight advantage, simply because the district historically trends so far to the right. But he doesn’t have much of an advantage, and the DCCC has the money to try to erase any lead Tinsley might have.