Apparently, Doña Ana County is a fairly independently minded place — at least when it comes to politics.
Currently, 18 percent of the county’s registered voters have declined to state a party affiliation, and that number is growing: Some 33 percent of people who registered to vote from January to June in the county are independents.
It’s no secret that independents are a growing sector of the electorate in America and that young people are at least partly responsible for that trend. Though national voter-registration statistics aren’t available by party affiliation, about a third of the nation’s voters call themselves independent.
Doña Ana County’s percentage of registered independents is greater than the state average of 15 percent, and only Los Alamos County has as high a percentage of independents as Doña Ana. In addition, Doña Ana County’s independent voter population is growing faster than that of any other county in the state.
Sandy Buffett, who heads the Albuquerque-based Conservation Voters of New Mexico, said she isn’t sure why the number of independents is increasing so rapidly in Doña Ana County, but her group has seen a sharp increase in political activity in the county in recent years that coincides with the rise of independents.
That political awakening has led to a shift to the left in government: Democrats won two right-leaning state House seats and a county commission seat in 2006, and progressives took control of the Las Cruces City Council in November and January.
Buffett said the increase in political activism is apparent in the number of people who are attending political and government meetings and getting involved, and also in the number of young people who have run for office in recent years. She said the level of activity in Las Cruces isn’t matched anywhere in the state, including Albuquerque.
“I wish we could get that all over the state, because people are mobilized and active in Las Cruces,” she said.
Why Doña Ana County?
Some political analysts and watchers interviewed for this article had ideas to explain the rapid rise of independents in Doña Ana County, but many others said it’s a mystery.
Matthew Henderson, who heads the voter-registration group ACORN in New Mexico, said a lot of young people have been among the thousands of people the group has registered to vote in the state’s second-most populous county this year, and that’s at least partly responsible for the trend. Though many college students register to vote using their parents’ addresses, which are often located in other counties, this year many students at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces have been registering using local dorm-room or apartment addresses, he said.
But the trend in Doña Ana County puts it ahead of the other New Mexico county with a significant urban area and a large university — Bernalillo County, which includes Albuquerque and the University of New Mexico. Some 16 percent of that county’s 352,596 registered voters were independents on May 23, and 25 percent of those who registered to vote in the first six months of the year in that county declined to state a party affiliation.
Henderson said among southwestern states, he has seen an independent movement similar to that in Doña Ana County only in some suburban counties around Denver.
Brian Sanderoff, an Albuquerque-based pollster, also cited NMSU as a factor in Doña Ana County’s large independent movement, but said registration can also be influenced “by the organizational strengths of the political parties and candidates.” He also said “the mood of the county, state and nation affects the proportions who register a particular way.”
Democrats and Republicans have both lost ground to independents in Doña Ana County in recent years. In July 2004, 53 percent of its 83,178 registered voters were Democrats, 30 percent were Republicans, 15 percent were independents and about 2 percent were members of other political parties. On July 18 of this year, according to numbers released by the county, 50 percent of its 100,547 registered voters were Democrats, 29 percent were Republicans, 18 percent were independents and 3 percent were members of other political parties.
Across the state, 50 percent of the almost 1.1 million registered voters were Democrats on May 23, while 33 percent were Republicans, 15 percent were independents and 2 percent were members of other parties.
Hard times for Republicans
Until recently, Sanderoff said, the independent trend came at the expense of Democrats, but Republicans are currently taking a hit. In Doña Ana County, the percentage of people who registered as independents from January to June — 33 percent — was significantly higher than the 20 percent who registered as Republicans. During that same time, 46 percent registered as Democrats, and fewer than 1 percent registered with another party.
Other counties where independents topped Republicans in voter registration from January to June were Bernalillo (25 percent to 21 percent), Luna (27 percent to 26 percent), McKinley (24 percent to 14 percent), San Miguel (14 percent to 12 percent), Santa Fe (20 percent to 17 percent) and Taos (18 percent to 9 percent). Independents didn’t top Democrats in voter registration from January to June in any New Mexico county.
Josh Geise, executive director of the state Democratic Party, pointed, like Sanderoff, to the recent hard times for Republicans. He said voters “are leaving the Republican Party because they are disappointed in politicians that haven’t represented their interests in Washington.”
“The Democratic Party of New Mexico is excited to have candidates at all levels that truly appeal to and are speaking to the concerns of independent voters, like the faltering Bush economy, the war in Iraq as well as government accountability and transparency,” Geise said in a statement released by the party. “The message of change that Democrats are talking about has resonated with independents, especially those who feel the Republican Party has abandoned them.”
State GOP spokesman Scott Darnell, meanwhile, said in an interview that Republicans “fully recognize that New Mexicans, and Americans in general, are tired of the gridlock and inaction in Washington, D.C. — by all involved.”
“With Sen. (John) McCain at the top of our ticket, we are excited by the prospect of more moderate and independent voters embracing his candidacy, seeing him as an effective and competent leader and someone who has always put his country ahead of his party and special-interest groups,” Darnell said. “Doña Ana County will be a critical battleground in the upcoming election, and the candidates who simply offer more effective solutions to the burdens faced by New Mexicans will win independent and cross-over votes. We feel those will be Republican candidates.”
