Poll: It’s a ‘photo finish’ in GOP U.S. Senate primary

A new poll of the Republican U.S. Senate primary finds a statistical tie between Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson as voters head to the polls today.

The SurveyUSA poll, conducted Friday through Sunday, has Pearce at 48 percent and Wilson at 47 percent. It surveyed 498 likely and actual Republican voters and has a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

The bottom line: The race will come down to turnout.

“Regional turnout will decide the contest,” the SurveyUSA polling memo states. “If Bernalillo County votes in smaller numbers than SurveyUSA here forecasts, Pearce wins. If Bernalillo County votes in larger numbers than SurveyUSA here forecasts, Wilson wins.”

The poll results aren’t much different than those from another SurveyUSA poll conducted a little more than two weeks ago that had Pearce leading by three points. In the interim, an Albuquerque Journal poll released Sunday and conducted Tuesday through Thursday of last week had Pearce leading by six points.

According to the newest poll, 28 percent of Republicans voted early and absentee, and Wilson had a one-point lead among those voters. Pearce led by three points among those who said they will vote today.

The Wilson campaign spun the new poll to claim momentum going into Election Day. In a news release, it said the Journal poll was “taken prior to two televised debates and a public announcement by Senator (Pete) Domenici that he is supporting Heather Wilson.”

“In the last seven days we’ve had two very successful debates and received the unexpected endorsement from Senator Domenici,” Wilson said in the release. “Undecided and lean-Pearce voters are making up their minds in these final days and I’m honored to have their support. Momentum is on our side and we are very encouraged that this will continue through Election Day.”

The Wilson campaign has been milking the Domenici endorsement for all it’s worth, using him in a robocall and releasing an almost constant stream of news releases related to his endorsement since he made it on Friday.

“It’s very possible the Domenici endorsement has had an effect here on voters who are undecided in this primary contest,” UNM professor and political analyst Tim Krebs told KOB-TV in Albuquerque, the station for whom both SurveyUSA polls were conducted.

Voter turnout for Republicans was higher around the state this year than it was in 2002, the last time there was a hotly contested statewide Republican primary. In fact, in Bernalillo, Doña Ana, Sandoval and Santa Fe counties, early voting turnout was roughly double what it was in 2002.

One other interesting point in the new SurveyUSA poll, which predicts a “photo finish” in the GOP Senate primary: The gender gap has been erased. In the previous poll, Pearce led by 11 points among men and Wilson led by five points among women. In the new poll, the candidates are “essentially tied in both groups.”

The polling memo doesn’t explain why that happened.