Tinsley goes negative as race turned upside down

Republican 2nd Congressional District candidate Ed Tinsley’s spokeswoman told me in March that Tinsley would continue to run “a positive, issue-based campaign” despite heavy attacks from primary opponent Aubrey Dunn Jr.

And yet on Thursday, Tinsley’s campaign issued a news release in response to the National Association of Realtors’ TV ad promoting primary opponent Monty Newman that accused Newman of having a “liberal tax and spend record.” The news release talked about tax and fee increases Newman supported as an elected official in Lea County.

“Monty’s troubling fiscal record as a career politician in Hobbs is indicative of how he will serve if elected, and New Mexico families simply cannot afford to send him to Washington,” the release stated.

More hard-hitting is the mailer Republican voters across the district are currently receiving from the Tinsley campaign that attacks Dunn.

“Aubrey Dunn Jr. stands with Washington’s most liberal Democrats to oppose the Patriot Act,” the mailer states, while showing pictures of Nancy Pelosi, John Kerry and Barack Obama. “… Aubrey Dunn Jr. Leaving Americans vulnerable to terrorists. Leaving conservative Republicans without a voice in Congress.”

You can view the inside of the mailer here and the outside here.

Tinsley told me during an interview in February that he would not go negative. His campaign told me in March that he would not send out negative mailers like the one Dunn sent attacking Tinsley as a “Santa Fe liberal.”

And yet it’s happened.

Tinsley campaign spokesman Christopher Maloney told me today that there has been no shift in strategy. He said Dunn has run a negative, “less-than-honest” campaign from the beginning, and the Tinsley campaign is simply responding by talking about the issues.

But the mailer, in addition to focusing on the Patriot Act, also takes shots at Dunn for giving $2,300 to the presidential campaign of Bill Richardson and for switching party affiliation, stating that those are other times he has “sided with liberal Democrats.”

Maloney also said the Realtors were spreading false information about Newman, so Tinsley’s campaign felt it was important to tell the truth about Newman’s fiscal record. He said the Tinsley campaign won’t resort to personal attacks because “that’s not what wins elections.” He said the campaign plans to contrast the candidates’ stances on the issues until the June 3 primary.

“We’re running an issues-based campaign just as we’ll continue to do. This is not about personal attacks,” Maloney said.

The reality

There’s a fine line between disagreeing on issues and negative attacking. Though the news release about Newman might not have crossed the threshold, the mailer about Dunn certainly did. With all due respect, campaign contributions and party affiliation aren’t policy issues. Neither is whether someone sided with liberal Democrats. Talking about why Dunn’s stance on the Patriot Act is wrong would be an issue-based discussion.

The reality is that Tinsley has gone negative after saying he would not. Why? My guess is that the race hasn’t gone as he planned.

Tinsley’s strategy depended on a big win in Doña Ana County. Then C. Earl Greer of T or C, who has significant support in Doña Ana County, jumped into the race. So did Greg Sowards of Las Cruces, who put $325,000 into his own campaign and has flooded Las Cruces with billboards and radio ads.

Dunn, meanwhile, had a strategy that didn’t include winning big in Doña Ana County or Lea County, which is Newman’s base. So having Greer and Sowards in the race actually gave a boost to Dunn by making Tinsley’s road more difficult.

Then the Realtors put almost $600,000 into promoting Newman. Putting that kind of money into effective mailers and TV ads draws support away from all other candidates.

Tinsley was once considered by most to be the frontrunner in a race that’s now completely unpredictable. I’m not sure there is a frontrunner any more. It appears that the Tinsley campaign isn’t sure, either.