Realtors change dynamic of GOP CD2 primary

The National Association of Realtors Political Action Committee has now spent almost $600,000 to promote Republican 2nd Congressional District candidate Monty Newman.

According to a notice it filed today with the Federal Election Commission, the group is spending almost $326,000 on TV ads promoting Newman in the Albuquerque and the El Paso television markets. As I reported on Wednesday, almost $200,000 of that is being spent in the Albuquerque market, which reaches every county in the 2nd District except Doña Ana.

The group also spent a little more than $12,000 to produce the TV ad, which you can see by clicking here.

That’s on top of the nearly $250,000 the group is spending on a mailer, which you can view by clicking here. The Realtors’ PAC, according to its latest FEC filing, has spent $585,107.16 to promote Newman’s candidacy.

That has shifted the dynamic in this wide-open primary race, which was once thought by many to be a contest between Aubrey Dunn Jr. and Ed Tinsley. I suspected, before the Realtors got involved, that Dunn had the edge. That was because his strategy doesn’t include winning Doña Ana County, but Tinsley’s does, and two other GOP candidates – C. Earl Greer and Greg Sowards – are expected to draw support from Doña Ana County.

But the Realtors are pushing Newman across the district. Dunn is likely to win Otero County, while Newman is likely to win Lea County. What about Doña Ana, Chaves and Eddy counties? What about the smaller counties across the district? It’s impossible to say, but I’m guessing that that Newman’s support from the Realtors puts a dent in Dunn’s strategy just like Greer and Sowards have dented Tinsley’s strategy.

Thanks to the Realtors, Newman is on TV and in mailboxes across the district. Sowards, using his $325,000 loan to his own campaign, has covered the district in billboards and flooded Doña Ana County radio stations with ads. Tinsley and Dunn are still running strong, and both are on TV. Greer continues to run a cheaper but strong, grassroots campaign.

The only way to describe this race is wide open. It’s impossible to predict who will win.

Comments are closed.