A Washington Post blogger is ranking New Mexico this week as the third most likely state to switch from Republican to Democrat or vice versa in the presidential race this year.
The Fix’s Chris Cillizza writes in a post today that, though President Bush won New Mexico in 2004, either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will be favored over John McCain in November. That comes despite a SurveyUSA poll released Thursday that has McCain leading both Democratic presidential candidates in potential head-to-head match-ups in New Mexico.
Cillizza refers to New Mexico’s open Senate seat and three open House seats, saying “no state has more competitive contests at the federal level than the Land of Enchantment.” That “level of fluidity” means millions of dollars will pour into the state.
“McCain (an Arizona senator) gives Republicans a fighting chance in the state due to his neighbor appeal, but the state has been trending Democratic of late and either Clinton or Obama will be favored in the fall,” Cillizza wrote.
New Mexico’s five electoral votes went to Bush in 2004 after he beat John Kerry by about 1 percent. Bush lost New Mexico by an even slimmer margin to Al Gore in 2000.
What do you think?