While Democrat Tom Udall is vastly outraising the two Republicans in the U.S. Senate race and leading in the polls, one of
“November is a long way off,” said Brian Sanderoff, whose company Research and Polling Inc. is the top polling firm in the state. “If the election were held today, Udall would beat Wilson or Pearce comfortably… Come November, the circumstances will be different.”
Udall began April with almost $2.6 million in the bank, while GOP candidate Heather Wilson had $1.2 million on hand and GOP candidate Steve Pearce had a little more than $854,000. During the fourth quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008, Udall bested the combined fundraising efforts of both GOP candidates. He’s saving most of that cash because he doesn’t have a primary opponent, while Pearce and Wilson are spending money in what has become an increasingly contentious primary battle.
There are other positive signs for Udall in the race that involves all three of
Udall campaign manager Amanda Cooper said she’s confident, but also knows the campaign can’t take anything for granted. She said the Republican candidates have one advantage because of their primary battle.
“They’ll be spending a lot of money, which will also get them a lot of name ID,” she said. “We really know that this could be a close race. It’s a state that is always competitive on the top of the ballot.”
Sanderoff agreed. He said Udall may be currently outraising the GOP candidates because he has no primary and Democrats are free to rally behind him. It’s more difficult for national organizations and others to get involved in the GOP primary, he said, so Wilson and Pearce have to raise money primarily on their own, using personal contacts.
He said Udall is in a better position than Pearce and Wilson – able to raise money more easily and not being beaten down by criticism from within his party – but he said the winner of the GOP primary will have little difficulty raising money for the general election. The Senate seat has been in Republican hands for 35 years, and it’s not one the party is going to give up without a fight.
“The general election I see as totally different than the primary,” Sanderoff said. “Pearce and Wilson are both formidable opponents.”
Differences between the GOP candidates
There are some differences between the GOP candidates.
Because of that, Pearce has primary endorsements from the right-wing Club for Growth, which advocates for smaller government and lower taxes, and the Susan B. Anthony List Candidate Fund, which supports pro-life candidates.
Pearce won the preprimary nominating convention with 54.5 percent of the vote to
Sanderoff said it’s difficult to say which candidate has a better shot at beating Udall, but, historically, moderate Republicans have had more success in top-of-the-ticket races in
“I’m not going to say that (Wilson) is better, but I’m saying that, holding all things equal, a moderate Republican has enjoyed more statewide success than a conservative,” Sanderoff said.
The question is whether all things are equal, he said.
Pearce, Sanderoff said, could paint Udall as far to the left. Just like New Mexicans tend to not elect far-right candidates in high-profile races, “they don’t go that far to the left, either.”
Fundraising momentum
Campaign spokesman Brian Phillips said Pearce has the momentum in the primary, pointing out that his fundraising in the first three months of 2008 was better than his fundraising in the previous quarter, while
“We’ve got great momentum going into the primary. We’re having no trouble raising money and we’re seeing an incredible amount of support throughout
“We are pleased to have the support of thousands of New Mexicans,”
Though Pearce briefly ran a television ad in January introducing himself to voters as a way to increase name identification, neither is currently on television. Both campaigns declined to comment on when or if they will air ads before the June 3 primary.
There are four debates between Pearce and Wilson coming up – two in
“She is looking forward to the debates because it gives the voters the best opportunity to see the candidates side-by-side,”
“This will give us a real chance to show a clear distinction between the conservative candidate – Steve Pearce – and Heather Wilson, who regularly votes with Tom Udall,” Phillips said.
‘We’re going to be prepared’
Udall has been a frequent topic in the primary, mainly as a way for the GOP candidates to contrast themselves with each other. Pearce has pointed out that Wilson and Udall sometimes vote together, while
Cooper said the Udall campaign is focused on raising money and preparing to run “a very strong campaign.” That will include being ready to quickly respond to attacks from the GOP candidate and outside groups that she expects to insert themselves into the race with television and radio ads.
“We have to be prepared to make sure that Tom’s strong record is not misconstrued,” she said. “They’re not shy about a nasty race and we want to make sure that people are aware of the congressman’s record.”
She wouldn’t predict who will win the primary or say whether Udall is pulling for one candidate over the other.
“Either of them is formidable, and we’re going to be prepared for a very good race,” Cooper said.