Democrats will gather in Rio Rancho and Republicans will gather in
Candidates can qualify to appear on the June 3 ballot by securing the votes of at least 20 percent of delegates at the respective conventions. Those who fail to reach that threshold can attempt to gather a large number of signatures over the course of the next few days to appear on the ballot, but getting at least 20 percent at the preprimary goes a long way toward convincing party insiders that a candidate is serious and credible.
Here’s a rundown of the races to watch this weekend:
CD2 GOP primary
Five of six candidates in this race have boldly proclaimed that they believe they have the support of 20 percent of delegates. Though that’s mathematically possible – barely – it isn’t going to happen.
The sixth candidate in the race, Greg Sowards, made the race even more unpredictable on Thursday by announcing that he’s loaning his campaign $325,000.
Many expect Aubrey Dunn to win this preprimary contest, but the waters get murky from there. Many think C. Earl Greer will finish second. Some question whether the candidate many consider the frontrunner, Ed Tinsley, will reach 20 percent, while others sound quite confident that he will. Dunn, Greer and Tinsley are the three candidates many expect will do the best.
U.S. Senate GOP primary
Steve Pearce has raised expectations by boldly declaring that he’s going to win the preprimary, and win it big. His campaign hasn’t put a number on that, but many Republicans are saying that if Heather Wilson comes anywhere close to him tomorrow, it will be a disappointment for Pearce.
Does Pearce have to win 70-30 to meet expectations? 60-40? 55-45? I don’t know. We’ll see what things look like after tomorrow’s vote, but GOP delegates have to make clear that they want Pearce or Wilson will be able to claim some sort of victory.
CD2 Democratic primary
While many consider Harry Teague to be the frontrunner in this primary race because of his money, Bill McCamley has been in the race and building an organization longer, and he has a chance to win the preprimary. I’m not going to predict which candidate will win the preprimary, but both should do well. If another candidate gets 20 percent, it will most likely be Al Kissling.
This seems to be a good time to disclose, as I’ve done before, that I’m friends with McCamley. Read more about that by clicking here.
CD3 Democratic primary
Most Democrats expect Ben R. Luján to win the preprimary and Don Wiviott to get at least 20 percent and qualify for the ballot. The questions are how close Wiviott will come to Luján, and whether any other candidate will reach 20 percent.
They’re good questions. Time will tell.
CD1 Democratic primary
Martin Heinrich is probably going to win this preprimary contest. With three women and a little-known attorney being the other candidates in the race, the question is whether enough of those Democrats who don’t want Heinrich on the ballot in the general election will get behind another candidate to give her or him 20 percent.
The other races
Expect both Republicans trying to get on the ballot in the Third Congressional District race to top 20 percent. Expect Darren White to win huge in the First Congressional District GOP preprimary. I’m not going to predict whether his opponent, Joe Carraro, will get 20 percent. In the U.S. Senate race, Tom Udall is unopposed on the Democratic side.
Final thoughts
Candidates who have a significant war chest will probably gather signatures to continue running even if they don’t reach 20 percent on Saturday. However, there could be fewer candidates in the federal races by next week.
The preprimary conventions are important for another reason: Upset wins – like victories by McCamley in the Democratic CD2 race or
I’ll be posting updates during the conventions on Saturday. Check back then.