Almost 300 Republicans showed up to Saturday’s
Several longtime Republicans said they had never seen more than 100 people at a county convention in
“Great turnout. Fantastic turnout,” was how the county’s interim party chair, Mark Van Dyke, characterized it.
Republicans have reported similarly high turnout at county conventions across the state, which may suggest, coming on the heels of the record turnout for the Democratic Party’s Feb. 5 presidential caucus, that interest in both parties is high this year.
All eyes were on the Second Congressional District candidates at Saturday’s meeting. A source close to Ed Tinsley’s campaign said he picked up at least 30 delegates at county conventions around the district this weekend, including at least half the 28 delegates from
Sources close to two other campaigns disputed the claim that Tinsley picked up half the
The reality is that the campaigns should have a good idea of how much support they’ve secured at this point, but there will be some undecided delegates at the March 15 state convention.
“Anyone who takes the delegate count for granted – I wouldn’t do that,” congressional candidate Monty Newman said on Saturday.
He estimated that 30-40 percent of delegates have already decided with certainty who they’ll support going into the March 15 convention. He said he secured all 13 delegates from
Other campaigns said the percentage of delegates who are committed to a candidate going into the March 15 convention is much higher than 30-40 percent. And Tinsley sounded very happy about his chances for securing more than 20 percent at the state convention. The situation appears much better for him now than it did last weekend, when Dunn surprised many with strong organization that resulted in him winning most or all of the delegates from Otero and Lincoln counties.
“I feel like they ran right past us for a touchdown on the opening kickoff, but we came back,” Tinsley said Saturday. Campaign spokeswoman Sarah Lenti added that the Tinsley campaign has shown “that we can mount an offensive throughout the entire district.” She said it’s now on to the second quarter of the game.
After speaking with a number of people close to the campaigns and other Republicans on Saturday, here’s where I think things stand: Dunn has the support of more than 20 percent of delegates. Tinsley and Greer probably do as well. At this point Newman, Terry Marquardt and Greg Sowards do not. Sowards, the only
However, there are a number of undecided delegates out there, and there are three weeks for heavy lobbying before the preprimary nominating convention. In addition, the governor told me Friday he would sign a bill that would provide an alternate path to the ballot for candidates who don’t win 20 percent at the convention. They’ll have a few days to gather a large number of signatures, assuming the governor actually signs the bill.
He has until March 5 to do that.
As for the U.S. Senate race, it appears that Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson both have the support to get on the ballot at the state convention. No surprise there. Both – and particularly Pearce – appeared tired at the
Here are some photos from the convention in
