Tuesday’s X factor: young and independent voters

Many believe that New Mexico politics have historically been about who you know. Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign understands that.

Clinton’s introduction at Highland High School in Albuquerque on Saturday was a prolonged event. It began with a New Mexico youth activist who explained why she supports Clinton and then introduced state Auditor Hector Balderas, who expressed his support of Clinton and then introduced Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez, who endorsed Clinton and then introduced former Housing and Urban Development secretary and San Antonio Mayor Henry Cisneros.

Cisneros praised Clinton, then introduced the founder of the United Farm Workers of America, Dolores Huerta. After Huerta urged people to support Clinton, Cisneros introduced Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, Chelsea Clinton and, finally, Hillary Clinton.

The presidential candidate then spoke to an enthusiastic crowd for about 30 minutes.

The introduction was a strong show of force. Let there be no doubt that Clinton has secured more support from high-profile New Mexicans than her opponent in Tuesday’s Democratic caucus, Barack Obama. If New Mexico Democrats are going to be swayed by endorsements, Clinton is in good shape.

Obama, who visited Santa Fe for the first time on Friday, is betting that New Mexicans will rise up and make this contest about more than big-name endorsements.

He has endorsements from a handful of elected officials, but he didn’t pick any of them to introduce him when he spoke to 3,600 people in Santa Fe on Friday. Instead, Obama gave that honor to Gaye Polliltt.

Polliltt started Obama’s grassroots group in Santa Fe more than a year ago – long before his campaign opened offices in the state. It’s the first time she’s been active in politics. In introducing Obama, she spoke about how he has inspired her to believe that her involvement can make a difference.

I attended the Clinton and Obama events and was struck by the stark contrast between the introductions of the candidates – each intentionally orchestrated to emphasize different points. Clinton says she has the experience to lead the nation through troubled times, and the more endorsements she can get from trusted leaders, the more credible she appears. Obama wants uninvolved Americans to set aside cynicism and unite to help him change a government that is bogged down by partisan bickering and clouded by the influence of special-interest money, and Polliltt set the example.

After attending both events this weekend, I can tell you that the hype surrounding the two candidates is well-deserved. Clinton and Obama are articulate, passionate, energetic and eager to lead the nation in a new direction, and they’re both delivering powerful messages at a time when the majority of Americans are unhappy with the state of the nation.

Interest in Obama

There is a lot of energy surrounding both campaigns, but interest in Obama’s appears to be higher in New Mexico. Some 4,500 people showed up to see him at the Kiva Auditorium in Albuquerque on Friday, and he spoke on a plaza down the street with another 1,000 who couldn’t get in to the event.

Turnout in Santa Fe was equally impressive. In addition to the 3,600 who got in to the official event, Obama spoke briefly to the 2,000 who stood outside in freezing weather hoping for a chance to see him. On top of that, there was a long line of cars trying to reach the College of Santa Fe, where Obama spoke, and many who wanted to see him never made it to the event. That caused quite a traffic mess on Santa Fe’s south side.

By contrast, the Clinton campaign said a smaller crowd of 3,000 saw her on Saturday. Just about everyone who tried to get in was successful.

The state’s newspapers – at least those that endorse – have rallied behind Obama. The Albuquerque Journal, Albuquerque Tribune, Santa Fe New Mexican, Hobbs News Sun and Los Alamos Monitor all endorsed him. None have backed Clinton.

“The Tribune believes Obama has reawakened the imagination, work ethic and hope of Americans coast to coast and across the political spectrum – particularly among the nation’s youngest voters who finally seem engaged in their country and their future,” the newspaper’s endorsement read.

But will they vote?

It’s the youth, coupled with pessimistic and independent-minded people, who are most captivated by Obama’s call for a different way of doing business in Washington. Obama challenges them to put aside cynicism and participate in the political process. Their action – or inaction – will decide Tuesday’s race in New Mexico.

Though Clinton is, to a lesser degree, inspiring the participation of young people, the vast majority who are getting involved are focused on Obama. I spoke with a couple who said, after seeing Obama on Friday, they’ll either vote for him or for no one – they hadn’t decided which.

Such people are interested in hearing Obama’s message – that’s why they turned out in such large numbers at his stops in New Mexico – but the question is whether they will heed his call to action. In Iowa, those potential participants did show up to caucus, and Obama won. In New Hampshire, they weren’t as much a factor, and Clinton won.

If they show up to vote in New Mexico on Tuesday, I think Obama is likely to win the state. If they don’t, Clinton will probably win.

More information

Here are some links that may be useful for Democrats who are still on the fence:

• You can read about Clinton’s visit to Albuquerque by clicking here. You can read about Obama’s Santa Fe visit by clicking here and his Albuquerque visit here.

• In case you missed the earlier postings, you can watch my video of Clinton’s visit by clicking here and my video of Obama’s visit by clicking here.

• You can watch video of Obama’s visit to Albuquerque from KNME-TV by clicking here and the station’s video of Clinton’s visit by clicking here.

• You can watch Obama’s speech to those standing in the cold outside Friday’s event in Santa Fe by clicking here.

• For information on how to vote on Tuesday – you can only do it if you’re a Democrat – click here.