Pearce claims preprimary victory, calls it a huge upset

Steve Pearce is predicting that he will easily win the March 15 preprimary nominating convention in the GOP primary for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici, and claims that will be a huge upset because he’s the underdog in the race.

The first half of that prediction – that he’ll win – didn’t come as a surprise to me. But the claim that he’s the underdog in the race I found to be a little bizarre.

Preprimaries are about the party insiders – the most active, conservative Republicans in the state. Pearce is easily the more conservative candidate and most analysts have said he is the favorite not only in the preprimary, but also in the June 3 primary against Heather Wilson.

Still, here’s the claim from the Pearce campaign:

“According to our figures, Steve Pearce will defeat Heather Wilson at the state convention for the Republican nomination to the U.S. Senate,” Campaign Manager John Billingsley said in a news release. “Wilson has been seen by many as the inevitable winner of the nomination. This assumption will soon be relegated to the ash heap of history.”

He went on to say that the convention “will shock the establishment in Washington, D.C. and open up new doors of support for Steve Pearce and his campaign for the U.S. Senate. The Wilson forces are spinning and demoralized while the Pearce campaign seems to reach a higher level every day.”

“This stunning series of events on top of a state party poll showing Pearce in the lead creates a clear pattern of success for our campaign,” Billingsley said, referring to a recent poll conducted by the state GOP that had Pearce up 38-33 percent.

Pearce spokesman Brian Phillips would not release exact numbers, but said Pearce’s lead at the preprimary “will be significant.”

A victory at the preprimary gives the candidate the top ballot position and often generates momentum.

A source close to the Wilson campaign who would not speak on the record said Pearce told supporters in January that he expected to win 70 percent of delegates at the preprimary nominating convention, something other Republican sources have confirmed for me. The Wilson source said Pearce did not do as well at county conventions last week as he expected.

“It’s obvious he’s not going to get his 70 percent, but any reasonable person knows that Steve Pearce is favored to win the state convention,” the source said, while declining to speculate on Wilson’s support beyond saying she will do better than the 30 percent that would be left if Pearce had been able to secure 70 percent.

Analysis

I have a couple of thoughts about Pearce’s claim that he has been the underdog in this race: The news release appears directed more toward the Washington establishment than the New Mexico media. Wilson has been in tough contests every election cycle, and the national media has covered her races. So it may be true that people in Washington expect more from her because they know more about her past.

In addition, the Pearce release comes as news is circulating outside New Mexico about a story I reported on Monday: Pearce’s comment that England is a greater exported of Islamic terrorism than any Middle Eastern nation. If Pearce’s news release about the preprimary is directed at the national media, it may be an attempt to counter headlines about his comments about England.

At any rate, here’s the bottom line: Pearce is probably going to win the preprimary nominating convention. He knows it. So does Wilson.