Dunn grabs delegates in home counties of opponents

There’s a lot of buzz surrounding the campaign of Republican Second Congressional District candidate Aubrey Dunn Jr. after he won all delegates to the party’s state convention in the home counties of opponents Ed Tinsley and Terry Marquardt last weekend.

Most surprising was Dunn’s victory in Otero County, where his supporters showed up in force and won all 15 county delegates to the March 15 preprimary nominating convention. Marquardt, who lives in Alamogordo, was a state representative for 12 years.

Dunn also won all seven delegates from Lincoln County. Tinsley and his wife own a ranch in Capitan, and his campaign headquarters is located in downtown Ruidoso. Dunn and his wife also own a ranch there, but they’ve only owned it for a year.

“We’re very encouraged by the support we’re receiving in counties across the Second Congressional District, and we’re excited about the grassroots response to our conservative values of protecting the border, cutting taxes, defending life and strengthening the American family,” Dunn said in a statement released by his campaign.

There are about 140 delegates to the state GOP convention from the Second Congressional District. The number isn’t definite, at this point, because a couple of counties are split between two congressional districts, and delegates will be divided based on turnout at those counties’ conventions.

A Republican Second Congressional District candidate needs approximately 28 delegates to secure 20 percent at the preprimary nominating convention and appear on the ballot in June. The Legislature approved an alternate path to the ballot for candidates who don’t secure 20 percent that involves gathering a large number of signatures in a short time period, but the governor has not yet acted on the bill.

The preprimary is important for other reasons: The winner appears at the top of the ballot. Success at the convention is also a sign of organizational strength and tends to create momentum.

This isn’t a system where votes are set in stone at county conventions. But what typically happens is that supporters who are registered Republicans show up and vote for delegates who have pledged to support their candidate. That means the 22 delegates from Lincoln and Otero counties could vote for any candidate at the state convention, but they’re supporters of Dunn and intend to vote for him.

There will also be a number of undecided delegates up for grabs at the state convention.

Tinsley, Marquardt remain optimistic

Prior to the county conventions that began last weekend, many considered Tinsley, who as of Dec. 31 had raised the most money of any Republican or Democratic candidate, to be the frontrunner in the race. Campaign spokeswoman Sarah Lenti remains positive today about Tinsley’s chances.

“We feel very good about the results we have had in five of the seven counties where conventions have been held,” she said. “Delegates are responding to our hard work and positive message and they appreciate our respect for the volunteer effort of grassroots Republican leaders in the convention process. Grassroot leadership and support will be the foundation for a Republican victory in November.”

Marquardt was clearly unhappy with the result in Otero County.

“The party was hijacked by people who had never been to a Republican meeting before and will never be at a Republican meeting again,” he said on Tuesday evening. “… (Dunn) brought his own party.”

In Otero County, many party regulars, including party Chair Sassy Tinling, were not selected as delegates to the state convention. Despite Dunn’s victory there, Marquardt said he is optimistic he will make it onto the ballot.

This weekend’s county conventions

Counties that will hold their conventions this weekend include Lea County, which has 13 delegates, and Chaves County, which has 17. The string of 17 county conventions throughout the district will conclude Saturday evening with the biggest prize: Doña Ana County’s 28 delegates.

While Monty Newman, who is the Hobbs mayor, is expected to do well in Lea County, the delegates from Chaves and Doña Ana counties could be split. In Doña Ana County, Tinsley, Marquardt, C. Earl Greer and Greg Sowards all have the potential to walk away with a significant number of delegates, and Newman and Dunn might also surprise.

Republican county conventions that have already been held around the state have had unusually high attendance. That, coupled with Dunn’s unexpected success in opponents’ home counties, makes this race for state delegates even more uncertain.

After being asked about Dunn’s success in Otero and Lincoln counties, Newman said there are “some political tactics being taken this time around that are slightly different.” He said he is looking to do well in Lea and other counties, but is also watching to see whether the governor signs the bill providing an alternate path to the ballot. Newman added that he expects “to do fine coming out of the preprimary convention.”

Greer and Sowards could not be reached for comment.

Update, Feb. 21, 9 a.m.

Greer said he is “very pleased” with his showing at county conventions that have already been held.

“We’re very confident we’ll have our 20 percent of the delegate vote without question. Grassroots has been our theme since day one, and it’s working,” Greer said.