A dearth of polling has New Mexicans in the dark about who is likely to win the Feb. 5 Democratic Party Caucus in this state.
The only poll of the state’s Democratic voters was conducted in September for the Albuquerque Journal. But the dynamic of the race has shifted since then, with the rise in popularity of Barack Obama and, most important in New Mexico, the exit from the race of Gov. Bill Richardson.
The Journal poll had Richardson at 44 percent, Hillary Clinton at 17 percent, and Obama and John Edwards each at 8 percent.
New Mexico is one of only four Feb. 5 states – out of more than 20 that will hold contests that day – where national groups haven’t conducted polls, according to Real Clear Politics. That’s probably because, until recently, the state wasn’t in play because Richardson was in the race.
SurveyUSA released a poll last week that compared Obama and Clinton with the top four Republican candidates in New Mexico, and it generally found Obama to be stronger in a general election matchup with the GOP candidates than Clinton. While Clinton beat Rudy Giuliani by five points, Obama beat him by eight points. He beat Mitt Romney by 10 points, while Clinton beat him by three. Obama beat Mike Huckabee by eight points, while Clinton beat him by one point. John McCain beat both Clinton and Obama by nine points.
An Obama campaign spokesman told me today the campaign will focus on electability in making its case in New Mexico. This poll reveals the reason.
But the poll gives few clues about where the Democratic candidates stand in a head-to-head matchup in New Mexico.
Obama clearly has a huge amount of grassroots support in New Mexico. Some 100 volunteers fanned out across the state last weekend to knock on doors and contacted 8,000 voters for him. But Clinton plans a similar event next weekend.
Obama had offices open more quickly and ads on television before Clinton, but she has caught up with him in those areas. And Clinton has the endorsement of AFSCME – a government employees union that’s influential in the state – and its organizers will be lobbying members to back Clinton.
Both have secured some impressive early endorsements in New Mexico, but Clinton has more heavy-hitters on her list than Obama. Clinton also has the benefit of three people with star power on the campaign trail. While she’s planning to visit New Mexico over the weekend – sources tell me that will happen Saturday – Bill Clinton is visiting New Mexico on Thursday, and sources tell me their daughter Chelsea may be in New Mexico right before the caucus on Tuesday. But Obama’s campaign will also get a boost when Sen. Ted Kennedy visits the state for him before Feb. 5.
Based on results from other states and early endorsements in New Mexico, Obama appears to be getting more support from progressive Democrats than Clinton. That’s certain to help him in Santa Fe and Albuquerque, and in Las Cruces, where I wrote recently that progressive Democrats have made significant gains in recent elections. But Clinton is likely to be strong in the rural areas and also have a great deal of support in the state’s urban areas.
Does that mean Clinton or Obama has the advantage? I have no idea. One thing I do know is we’re likely to see one or two polls by national groups before Feb. 5. I’ll report on them when they are released.
Update, 6:45 p.m.
Pollster Brian Sanderoff of Research and Polling in Albuquerque said he gives Clinton the edge in New Mexico if she “can continue to do well among Western U.S. Hispanics” and especially if she wins Florida’s primary on Tuesday.
It’s a primary that isn’t gaining much attention because Florida bucked the national party and moved up its primary date, and was stripped of its delegates as a result. Clinton is the only Democratic candidate actively campaigning there.
Still, Sanderoff said, Obama has “big-time momentum coming out of South Carolina and getting endorsements from some of the Kennedys.”
Sanderoff said he has done no polling on the race since Richardson dropped out.
A prior version of this posting incorrectly overstated the number of Obama volunteers who contacted voters last weekend.
A dearth of polling has New Mexicans in the dark about who is likely to win the Feb. 5 Democratic Party Caucus in this state. 
An Obama campaign spokesman told me today the campaign will focus on electability in making its case in