“When the number of factors coming into play in a phenomenological complex is too large, scientific method in most cases fails. One need only think of the weather, in which case the prediction even for a few days ahead is impossible.” – Albert Einstein
Notwithstanding the truth of Einstein’s quote, I offer herein a few predictions for 2008. Let me acknowledge to start that my predictions are no more likely to be accurate than those of the generally well-informed readers of this blog, so feel free to add your own comments at the end of this posting.
Let’s dispense quickly with national predictions, since we are besieged daily by many media political commentators. For my part, I predict that:
• a Democrat will be elected president and the Democrats will again control Congress, despite their dismal performance since the 2006 elections.
• our boy Bill Richardson will do better in Iowa and New Hampshire than the polls currently indicate, and he will stick it out through Feb. 5 super Tuesday, after which he will call it quits. I hope I’m wrong on this one, because Bill is clearly the best-suited candidate.
• by mid-year, some troops will be brought back home from
State predictions
OK, that’s enough of the national stuff. Now to state and local predictions, which are more enjoyable to speculate about since they are closer to home.
Since
Our open District 2 congressional seat has one less candidate now that Joseph Cervantes has withdrawn. Both the primary and the general election will be close races, but I think our energetic and intelligent young friend Bill McCamley will win. Tom Udall will be elected to replace Pete Domenici and I also predict that Democrats will win the other two open Congressional seats, likely giving the state an entirely Democratic delegation.
Local government
The politics of Las Cruces City Council have gotten considerably more interesting because of the public debate over the quality of growth and development. I think Sharon Thomas will win the open seat on the council this month. If I’m right on that, it will result in one of the best council groups that this city has ever seen. I’m a believer in the dynamic of the group, and I think that the combination of personalities will result in thoughtful, thorough and fair decision making. They won’t be either anti-growth or pro-growth but will accept the inevitability of growth and put in place some sensible growth-management policies.
At the county level, two commission seats will be vacated (by Kent Evans and McCamley), and it’s too early to say who might replace them. Dolores Saldaña-Caviness’ seat in the south is also up, and I think she will lose. So the commission will have two, probably three new faces. Holdover commissioners will be Karen Perez and Oscar Vásquez Butler, who have demonstrated a degree of independence. Neither appears to be a rubber stamp for the county manager and his staff, which is refreshing and needed.
I think the county is at a critical juncture, and I believe the major need for improvement in local governance is at this level of government. A statistic that is often misunderstood is that more people live outside
Is the county prepared for that? I don’t see much evidence that county government overall has progressed to the level of sophistication that the situation requires. One only needs to drop in on community meetings in the south county to hear complaint after complaint about county services. I suspect that when the planners go about having various community meetings in 2008 for the 2040 comprehensive plan, they will get an earful of such complaints. I don’t know if the county information office has conducted a citizen satisfaction survey, but it ought to.
So, what’s my prediction? I think county issues will get lots of attention in 2008 and there will be significant focus on growth and services, on the budget, and on the inadequate leadership being provided by the current county manager. I’ll be writing more about this situation in future columns for this site.
Those are my predictive comments for the New Year. What are yours?
Kadlecek has lived in