Though Bill Richardson’s campaign denies an earlier report from the Iowa Independent that he will direct his supporters to caucus in the second round for Barack Obama in precincts where he’s not viable, the New York Times is now reporting the same thing.
Quoting a senior Obama adviser, the Times reports that Richardson will urge his supporters to pick Obama as their second choice – which Obama’s campaign estimates will give him a seven- or eight-point boost. In exchange, Obama will urge supporters in places where he has more backers than he needs to win additional delegates to back Richardson, helping the governor reach the 15-percent threshold of viability in some precincts.
If it’s true – and there is mounting evidence that it is – the strategy for both campaigns appears to be taking down John Edwards. For the record, both campaigns officially deny that it’s true.
But here’s the reality: Richardson won’t likely finish third or better tonight. He’s trying to fight off a climbing Joe Biden to finish fourth. Richardson can finish fourth and still be in a respectable position only if Edwards doesn’t finish first.
Edwards is currently third in the polls behind Obama and Hillary Clinton, but the race between the three is very close. Edwards is much stronger in the rural areas of Iowa than Obama and Clinton, and under the archaic Iowa Caucus system, that gives Edwards the advantage. Many politicos believe for that reason that Edwards is most likely to win the caucus tonight.
Edwards has bet everything in Iowa. He has less money than Clinton and Obama and he’s focused it all in one place. While Clinton and Obama can survive second- or third-place finishes tonight because they have strong organizations in New Hampshire and the Feb. 5 states, Edwards cannot.
This is a do-or-die day for Edwards.
If Richardson were to urge his supporters, in places where he isn’t viable, to support Obama in the second round of voting, he could help Obama defeat Edwards and, if that happens, effectively knock Edwards from the race.
Then all Richardson has to do to is stay ahead of Biden and the other second-tier candidates, a goal Obama’s extra support would help him accomplish. If Edwards doesn’t finish first and Richardson finishes fourth, the governor is in a position to potentially move into third place when voters in New Hampshire go to the polls on Tuesday.
If this is Richardson’s strategy, he has to play a careful game of chess. He’s teetering on the edge of being viable in a number of precincts, and many of the undecided caucus goers may pick him. Richardson certainly doesn’t want to give up support anywhere that he can finish at 15 percent or higher. But in places where he’s not going to reach that threshold, why not move some pieces around to help Obama and hurt Edwards in preparation for New Hampshire?
Biden might have a similar strategy: beat Richardson and help ensure Edwards doesn’t finish first. So might Chris Dodd. And Dennis Kucinich has already told his supporters to pick Obama as their second choice. But, if the Times report is accurate, Obama’s deal with Richardson makes it even more likely that the governor will finish fourth.
If this all comes true – that Richardson finishes fourth and Edwards finishes second or third – the governor just might be well positioned to be the alternative to Obama and Clinton in New Hampshire. Richardson doesn’t plan any rest after Iowa. He’ll be campaigning in New Hampshire on Friday morning and all the way until Tuesday.
Stay tuned.
Though Bill Richardson’s campaign denies an earlier report from the Iowa Independent that he will direct his supporters to caucus in the second round for Barack Obama in precincts where he’s not viable, the New York Times is now reporting the same thing. 
If it’s true – and there is mounting evidence that it is – the strategy for both campaigns appears to be taking down John Edwards. For the record, both campaigns officially deny that it’s true.
Edwards has bet everything in