In Iowa, anything can happen on Thursday

By Carter Bundy

I complain as much as anyone about how the horserace aspect of campaigns overshadows substantive policy discussion. But it’s a love-hate thing, because there’s nothing quite as exciting in politics as the first truly wide-open presidential race in 80 years.

1928 was the last year that neither party had an incumbent veep or president run for its nomination, and the lack of a pre-ordained frontrunner in either party means that the horserace is going to be tight all the way down the stretch.

It’s caucus eve, and the Iowa Democratic Caucus is a total toss-up. Hillary, John, and Barack have all been ahead in recent polls, although generally Edwards has been about five points back.

Here are two factors to think about in reading the polls: First, the delegate totals at the end of the night favor rural areas. Second, anyone can attend a Dem caucus, so the composition of the attendees can dramatically alter results.

Poweshiek power

The least amount of delegates a precinct can send to the county level is one. There are some rural, heavily Republican precincts in places like Poweshiek County that maybe have 50 registered Dems. Twenty may show up to caucus, and if 12 are for Edwards, they just won a delegate for him. Suppose that happens in three neighboring precincts. That’s 48 total voters for Edwards and four delegates.

By contrast, take an area where Obama may do well, like the university area of Iowa City. Iowa City Precinct 5 has six delegates at stake. 180 may show up. If Obama does very well and gets the support of two thirds of the caucus goers, he’ll score four delegates. Look at those numbers – it took 120 voters to get Obama four delegates and only 48 for Edwards to get the same number. Edwards may be down in most polls, but don’t underestimate the disproportionate power of voters in rural precincts, especially where there are few Dems.

That’s the biggest flaw in all of the caucus polls, and the one that makes them least reliable in Iowa.

Independent intrigue

Another wild card is whether the caucus will be dominated by Dems or whether a significant number of independents and even Republicans will attend. Iowa Dems allow any Iowa voter to show up and sign up as a Dem the night of the caucus.

The latest Des Moines Register poll made the assumption that 46 percent of Democratic Caucus attendees would be independent or Republican. Since Obama is doing well with independents, he surged in that poll to a solid seven-point lead over Clinton.

Problem is, only 20 percent of the people who attended the 2004 Democratic Caucus were independent or Republican, and the number was 15 percent in the last year both parties had real primaries (W wasn’t seriously challenged in ‘04).

Because the caucus is the same night for the GOP and Dems, and there’s also a red-hot Republican race, there won’t be the same crossover as in ‘04. And independents will have to choose between two competitive caucuses instead of just going to the Dem caucus as they did in ‘04.

If only Dems vote Thursday, the Register poll would have Hillary winning by six points. If you assume a 20 percent indy/GOP turnout at the Dem caucuses, Clinton wins by two, which is consistent with her margin in several other recent polls.

But who’s to say what percentage of attendees won’t be traditional Dems? People thought Dean would bring out a massive universe of young, new, often independent voters, and it didn’t materialize.

Obama’s field campaign is run by some of the best in the business (by way of disclosure, that includes my good friend and AFSCME mentor Temo Figueroa) and has been very conscious of not making the same mistakes Dean did. How well they succeed in actually ginning up independent support and bringing in new voters will be central to the stories you’ll see Friday morning.

Underdogs and upsets

Governor Richardson is fond of saying – correctly – that Iowa loves an underdog. His campaign has done a great job of raising itself out of the pack, but hasn’t quite moved into that top tier.

The governor has a strong Iraq comparison ad running non-stop on TV, a massive New Mexico army giving first-hand testimony, and legendary retail campaigning skills. Does that overcome the earlier lead of the big three? That’s the beauty of Iowa. It’s a stretch that he’ll knock off one of the top three, but not out of the question.

On the ground, it does seem that Edwards, Clinton and Obama each have a solid core of support that isn’t going to drop below 20 percent, with at least two of them probably finishing solidly above 25 percent.

That means Richardson has to clean Biden’s and Dodd’s clocks to be competitive. Dodd has solid and visible support from firefighters, and Biden is well respected, so that’s not an easy task. If one candidate can emerge from that pack, though, look for the big guy to do it.

Either way, the final order of the delegate count is wide open, making for a great horserace down the backstretch. Substance be damned. The Mickey Mouse Club used to celebrate Anything-Can-Happen-Day on Wednesdays. Look for the Dems, who are anything but Mickey Mouse this year, to enjoy their own version this Thursday.

P.S. Iowa’s really cold.

Bundy is the political and legislative director for AFSCME in New Mexico. The opinions in his column are personal and do not necessarily reflect any official AFSCME position. You can learn more about him by clicking here. Contact him at carterbundy@yahoo.com.