As Bill Richardson’s support in polls in Iowa and New Hampshire continues to drop, the governor says he will “shock the world” when Democrats in Iowa caucus on Thursday. At the same time, Richardson also appears to be backing away from previous statements that he has to finish third or better there to have a shot at the nomination.
Richardson has said throughout the campaign that he had to place third or better in Iowa and New Hampshire, hoping that would propel him to victory in Nevada and strong showings on Feb. 5 in states like New Mexico, Arizona and California.
But about a week ago he began downplaying Iowa, mentioning only New Hampshire when saying he had to finish third or better. Then, in an article published today in the Albuquerque Journal, Richardson didn’t mention either state.
“I’m in this race at least until Feb. 5, to see how I do in my own (Western) region,” the Journal quoted him as telling a crowd in Iowa.
Why the shift? Richardson’s support in Iowa and New Hampshire, and in national polls, continues to fall. Richardson’s Real Clear Politics average of recent polls in Iowa today is 5 percent – down from 7.2 percent on Dec. 19 – and his average of recent polls in New Hampshire is 4.8 percent – down from 7 percent on Dec. 19. His average of recent national polls has fallen to 2 percent from his 2.9 percent average on Dec. 19.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden has climbed to an average of 3 percent in recent national polls, 4.5 percent in recent Iowa polls and 2.5 percent in recent New Hampshire polls.
Campaign claim doesn’t match polls
Polls – particularly under the archaic Iowa caucus system – can be wrong. Richardson’s campaign manager, Dave Contarino, put out a memo titled “Iowa Momentum” that claims the campaign has “confirmed” 18,000 caucus supporters and expects to reach 22,000 by Thursday evening, which would give the governor the support of nearly 20 percent of caucus goers. In addition, he claims Richardson is the “confirmed” second choice of nearly 25 percent of Iowa Democratic caucus goers, which is important under the system because, if a candidate’s support doesn’t reach 15 percent at a precinct, his or her supporters have to move to their second choice.
Considering that Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama are all polling at between 26 and 29 percent in Iowa, Contarino’s claim is a nearly outrageous one that isn’t supported by a single independent poll. In addition, you can bet that, if internal polling backed it up, the campaign would have released it. Recent independent polls have placed Richardson’s support in Iowa at anywhere between 2 and 12 percent.
Richardson’s own backtracking on the importance of finishing third in Iowa suggests that even he doesn’t believe he has anywhere near the level of support claimed by Contarino.
Still, Richardson continues to put a positive spin on the situation, telling CNN that he’s going to “shock the world” on Thursday. He has an army of hundreds of volunteers from New Mexico in Iowa to implore Democrats to pick him, which could give him a boost. He will probably do better in the state’s rural areas than in urban areas, which, as explained by Carter Bundy, is also a plus.
And the governor has flooded the airwaves in Iowa and New Hampshire with television ads, nearly keeping pace with the frontrunners. He has to be spending all his money to do it, hoping for a big fundraising boost if he can pull off a miracle in either state.
Richardson has received one other boost in recent days: He was endorsed by the Conway Daily Sun in New Hampshire, which called him the only heavyweight in the race. The paper, which is the only to endorse him in either state, has a circulation of about 16,000.
“A handful of years as senator… simply does not stack up to Richardson’s powerful résumé as a former congressman, energy secretary, U.N. ambassador, and now, governor of New Mexico,” the endorsement stated.
The most likely scenario
But that hasn’t stopped Richardson from sliding further behind the three frontrunners in the polls, and several articles have noted that the crowds showing up to hear Biden speak are growing. The senator spoke before 500 people on Tuesday – a number that rivals that of the Republican frontrunners – while Richardson appeared before a crowd of about 70.
Still, enough Iowa caucus goers remain undecided – which could mean they don’t like the three frontrunners – that a second-tier candidate like Richardson or Biden could shock the world on Thursday. The most likely scenario, however, is that Richardson is going to finish fourth or even fifth behind Biden. The governor’s new focus on staying in the race until Feb. 5 regardless of where he finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire suggests he knows it.
Check back throughout the day and evening on Thursday, as I’ll have complete coverage of the Iowa Caucus. Expect results sometime after 7 p.m. Mountain Standard Time.
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