After a brief surge in Iowa, New Hampshire and national polls in recent weeks, Gov. Bill Richardson’s support is again headed in the opposite direction; meanwhile, support for Joe Biden is increasing.
Since Tuesday, Richardson’s Real Clear Politics average of recent national polls has fallen from 4.1 percent to 3.6 percent. Meanwhile, Biden’s average has risen from 2.8 percent to 3.4 percent.
The governor’s average of recent polls in Iowa has fallen from 9.8 percent to 7.4 percent since Tuesday, and his average of recent polls in New Hampshire has fallen from 10.3 percent to 8 percent. Meanwhile, Biden has climbed in Iowa to 5.3 percent and in New Hampshire to 3 percent.
Both candidates are still far behind the three frontrunners.
While most polls have shown Richardson at between 8 and 10 percent in the all-important state of Iowa in the last two weeks, one poll conducted by American Research Group had him last week at 4 percent, and another conducted by Strategic Vision had him at 3 percent. Those two polls are almost entirely responsible for Richardson’s drop in Iowa.
In addition, a poll that’s not included in the Real Clear Politics average – an internal poll conducted for John Edwards’ campaign – has Richardson at 9 percent among likely Democratic caucus goers and 8 percent among definite Democratic caucus goers.
In New Hampshire, Richardson’s decline has come because all recent polls of likely Democratic primary voters place him below his 10.3 percent average of a week ago. The two most recent polls – one conducted by Mason-Dixon and the other conducted by Zogby – have Richardson at 7 and 6 percent, respectively.
Another piece of bad news for Richardson is the most recent American Research Group poll of likely Democratic caucus goers in Nevada, which has him at 2 percent. The Richardson campaign is only more active in Iowa and New Hampshire than it is in Nevada, the fourth state to hold its presidential nominating contest. The governor has generally been at between 5 and 8 percent in polls in the state.
Richardson’s decline comes as supporters from New Mexico – including a number of state employees Richardson asked for help – are traveling to Iowa to campaign for him. Will it matter? With 24 days until the Iowa Caucus, only time will tell, but there are certainly going to be a number of new polls conducted during that time to help us keep track.
After a brief surge in