PoliSci Petri dish

By Carter Bundy

We’re about two weeks away from finding out the answer to a classic political question: Which force is stronger, negativity or likeability? The GOP race in Iowa is setting up nicely to answer that very question.

I like Ike

Two widely-held beliefs of presidential politics are about to be tested. Often, they’re not in conflict. This year, though, only one will be proven right. The first axiom is that people vote for the candidate they like the most. Heck, Dwight Eisenhower even used it as a campaign slogan.

There has to be something to that, because if you don’t give credence to that theory, the implication is that just under half of America actually thought W was better qualified/smarter/had more potential to lead than Al Gore. Let’s give the American electorate the benefit of the doubt and chalk W up to likeability.

I’m not a Republican, so don’t take this as gospel, but to me, it seems Mike Huckabee is, by a large margin, the most likeable GOP candidate. He’s funny, self-deprecating, charming, seems genuinely humble… a good guy.

That image is confirmed, at least for most GOP caucus and primary voters, in his new ad simply wishing everyone a Merry Christmas and eschewing any political talk, even positive political talk.

As an aside, how crazy is the attack on Huckabee for the “floating cross” bookshelf? They claim he was trying to send a subliminal message that he’s a Christian. Ummm… doesn’t he actually say in the ad that the most important thing about the season is the birth of Jesus Christ?

Huck handled it beautifully by saying, “Yeah, and if you listen to the ad backwards, it says ‘Paul is dead.’” I don’t have a DVR that plays audio in reverse, but of course he’s being facetious. Clever/cute pop reference and disarming good-natured humor. Likeable.

So in one corner, we have likeability. Can’t miss. Doesn’t miss. Sure-fire winner. Roosevelt. Eisenhower. Kennedy. Reagan. Clinton. Even W (until everyone figured out that he’s really in way over his head).

You’ve got to fight

Except… in this corner we have another heavyweight truism: If you don’t hit back hard when you’re attacked, you’re done. The Kerry campaign proved that in spades when it miscalculated the extent of damage from the Swiftboat campaign.

The actual Swiftee TV buy was only about $200,000 in three states, and apparently Kerry thought that he’d be better off not drawing attention to the bogus charges by responding to them.

Instead, the cable and Internet perma-cycles turned the Kerry-bashers’ largely un-refuted allegations into the story of the campaign. Kerry’s reluctance to hit back was seen as weakness rather than staying above the fray. Negative campaigning works when the target doesn’t hit back, or so it seems.

The matchup

This year, Mitt Romney has taken to accusing Huck of being a meth-promoting, criminal-freeing governor. I wasn’t in Arkansas and don’t really have the time to review all 1,100+ pardons and commutations Huck allegedly handed out, so I’m not in a position to pass judgment on the truth of the allegations.

Guess what: There aren’t a lot of Iowa caucus-goers who have that time or interest either. So the charges are out there, un-refuted.

That’s sets a perfect stage for at least one data point to be developed in the political campaign world in the question of whether likeability trumps negative campaigning.

So far, it seems that Huck is banking on his likeability and positive approach to weather the negative storm.

If negative campaigning is ever going to be ineffective, you’d think it’s during holiday season, especially when the victim is simultaneously saying “Merry Christmas.” Yes, the ads often run back-to-back.

Thanks to the Iowa GOP putting the caucus on Jan. 3 (Dems followed suit to avoid double-voting and other issues), Mitt’s ads are daringly being aired right in the middle of the Christmas season. So are Huck’s warm, fuzzy ads.

Does Huckabee hit back? Maybe after Christmas. Maybe in targeted mailings. Or maybe he tries to ride the likeability maxim all the way through Jan. 3, setting up as close to a perfect political experiment as you can have.

Don’t look now, but Club for Growth, the uber-conservative anti-government group that tries to eliminate moderate Republicans, is also running negative ads on Huck’s tax record.

Is likeability enough to make GOP voters ignore allegations that Huckabee’s a terrible taxer and criminal coddler? If the charges remain un-refuted, GOP voters would have to really want to give the Huck the benefit of the doubt.

What could make GOP caucus voters like someone that much? Maybe that floating cross was intentionally in there as an extra layer of Teflon after all. Anyone have a DVR that will play audio backwards?

My random guess (as if I know the inner workings of the GOP voter’s mind): Huck rides it out in Iowa with positive messaging. He’s bound to do some media talking-point-type stuff defending himself, and even work explanations into a few speeches or at least into his Q and A, but the general messaging will stay positive. And with the credibility he’s built in other areas (read: religion), I’m betting it works for him in Iowa.

Happy Hanukkah, Merry Christmas, Happy Kwanzaa, and Happy New Year from Iowa! Oh, and Happy Festivus. If my calculations are right, that should spare me any negative comments, at least from Seinfeld devotees.

Bundy is the political and legislative director for AFSCME in New Mexico. The opinions in his column are personal and do not necessarily reflect any official AFSCME position. You can learn more about him by clicking here. Contact him at carterbundy@yahoo.com.