After surging in polls in Iowa and New Hampshire for a couple of weeks, Gov. Bill Richardson’s support in national polls is climbing, and he continues to climb in polls in the Granite State.
However, his support in recent, independent polls in the all-important state of Iowa has taken a dip in the last week, threatening any gains he’s making anywhere else.
Last Wednesday, Richardson’s Real Clear Politics Average of recent polls in Iowa was 9.8 percent. It was 8.5 percent in recent polls in New Hampshire. Today, his average is 8.3 percent in Iowa – down 1.5 percent – and 10.3 percent in New Hampshire – up 1.8 percent from a week ago.
In national polls, Richardson’s average today is 4.1 percent, propelling him back on to the list of candidates whose national average Real Clear Politics is tracking for the first time since his national average fell below 3 percent several weeks ago.
But what matters most is Iowa, whose Jan. 3 caucus will create momentum going into the Jan. 8 primary in New Hampshire and all subsequent contests. Richardson’s support varies wildly in recent Iowa polls. It’s incredibly difficult to obtain accurate poll numbers in a state that holds a caucus instead of a primary.
His worst showing is in an American Research Group poll that places him at 4 percent and in fifth place, behind the three frontrunners and Joe Biden, who is at 8 percent. However, most recent Iowa polls place Richardson at between 9 and 11 percent and solidly in fourth place, and it’s possible the ARG poll is an anomaly.
Richardson’s campaign sent a letter to supporters on Friday stating that its internal polling had the governor at 15 percent and Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards statistically tied “in the low 20s.”
But that’s not in line with what independent polls are showing. The trend in Iowa is that Obama has surged in the last couple of weeks to take a 0.3 percent lead over Clinton in the average of recent polls. In Iowa, he’s at 27.5 percent to Clinton’s 27.2 percent. Edwards’ average of recent polls in Iowa is 22.3 percent, and Biden’s average is 4.7 percent – 3.6 percent behind Richardson.
That trend has many rethinking the assumption that Clinton is the frontrunner for the Democratic Party’s nomination. In fact, her own campaign appears to be worried, having launched an attack on Obama in recent days and sending an e-mail to supporters acknowledging the “dead heat” in Iowa.
In New Hampshire, Richardson remains 5 points behind and within striking distance of Edwards, but both have climbed in recent polls while Clinton’s support has dipped and Obama’s has stagnated. Currently, Clinton leads with an average in recent polls of 34.2 percent to Obama’s 22.5 percent and Edwards’ 15.3 percent.
A vice presidential offer?
So Richardson remains unlikely to win the nomination, but it’s still too early to count him out. The reality, however, is that placing third or better in either state will be difficult for the governor if the poll numbers hold up. Richardson has said he has to place third or better in Iowa or New Hampshire, and recently said he will have to think hard about whether he will stay in the race if that doesn’t happen.
Speculation is again spreading that he might be interested in the vice presidential nomination after a forum in Iowa this weekend. At the event, Richardson asked Clinton, “Don’t you think governors make good presidents?”
She quickly responded with, “Well, Bill, I think they also make good vice presidents.”
Richardson was left speechless, the New York Daily News reported.
Was that an offer? Clinton has to be getting desperate as she falls to second place in Iowa. Richardson’s recent surge in Iowa coincided with the start of Clinton’s dip in the polls, so it’s reasonable to assume at least some of her lost support went to Richardson.
Richardson continues to say he isn’t interested in being vice president. Does anyone really believe he wouldn’t at least seriously consider it if offered?
After surging in polls in