Excitement and a sense of inevitability characterized the crowd that showed up to hear Tom Udall announce his U.S. Senate run in Las Cruces last week.
The excitement came from Udall supporters and other Democrats who sensed a real opportunity to pick up a Senate seat held by a Republican for more than three decades. The sense of inevitability came from the few supporters of Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez who attended the event to gauge reaction.
“He’s going to win,” one longtime Democrat told me.
“Chávez doesn’t stand a chance,” another said.
Similar crowds greeted Udall at other stops. The energy behind Udall’s candidacy seemed to confirm polls that repeatedly showed him as much stronger than Chávez against both Republicans seeking their party’s nomination for
Because of that, many I spoke with this evening weren’t surprised by the mayor’s announcement that he’s dropping out of the Senate race.
Not one to shy away from a fight
However, some were surprised by the announcement. Chávez had vowed for weeks to stay in the race despite the poll numbers and heavy pressure from Democrats in
Former
“He’s a very tough guy who doesn’t shy away from a fight, so I am surprised that he did it,” he said.
In recent weeks, Chávez had been picking fights with Udall, calling him too liberal to win the race and hitting the congressman hard over his support of proposed budget cuts at the state’s two national laboratories. Udall was facing the same attacks from Pearce and Wilson, leading some to accuse the mayor of carrying water for the GOP.
There wasn’t a hint of the negativity in the statement Chávez released tonight.
“It is crucial to the future of
He also pledged his support for Udall’s Senate bid. The Udall campaign could not be reached for comment.
What’s next for Chávez?
Chávez’s campaign made its first public mistake shortly after he entered the race in October when it released a list of members of his finance committee that included people who said they never agreed to serve on the committee. At that point, many Democrats began wondering whether Chávez’s organization had the strength and experience to compete against tough opponents and survive the constant pressure to drop out of the race.
And Chávez’s attempts to reach out to the liberal wing of his party fell on deaf ears. Progressives in
So what’s next for Chávez?
“I will work tirelessly to help Democrats get elected throughout our great State of
Chávez’s current mayoral term ends in 2009. A campaign law placing term limits on the city’s elected officials has already been tossed out as it relates to council candidates, and Chávez would likely be successful in a challenge of the law if he wanted to reject term limits and seek re-election.
But would he want to do that? A day before news broke of U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici’s retirement in October,
Some will push him to run for the First Congressional District seat being vacated by
He could try to rejoin the 2010 gubernatorial race, but Chávez would have to start over. He formed an exploratory committee earlier this year and began raising money for the race, but he had to disband the state committee and return the money when he entered the Senate race. It would be difficult to restart the state campaign from scratch.
In addition, a September Albuquerque Journal poll found Chávez facing a 20-point deficit against Lt. Gov. Diane Denish in a gubernatorial primary. Perhaps revealing what was to come in the
Chávez and his campaign aren’t talking about the mayor’s future plans. Questions went unanswered this evening.
New dynamic in Senate race
Chávez’s decision doesn’t quite clear the Democratic field for Udall, as alternative media publisher and editor Leland Lehrman is making a longshot bid for the party’s nomination. But it most likely makes the road ahead very easy for Udall through the June primary.
Meanwhile, Pearce and Wilson will duke it out in what will be the most closely watched primary contest in the state. Udall now has the happy position of raising money and spreading a positive message throughout the primary season while the two Republicans spend their money battling each other. If the GOP primary race turns nasty, it could be even more difficult for the successful but potentially damaged candidate to defeat Udall next November.
Senate Democrats already had their focus on Domenici’s seat, and they’re even more optimistic now about their prospects of taking it from Republicans. With Udall leading Pearce and Wilson in the polls, both Republicans will have to double their efforts if they’re to have a shot at winning in November.