Udall is trying to put pieces in place for Senate run

A number of sources are confirming that U.S. Rep. Tom Udall, D-N.M., has moved beyond simply reconsidering whether he should run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici. He’s now trying to put the pieces in place for a Senate run.

That’s sort of obvious, even without the confirmation from sources. Udall considered a Senate run once and decided against it. To reconsider now – and confirm it publicly – means he must be very serious.

With so many Democrats in New Mexico and Washington unsatisfied with the Democrats currently running for Senate, Udall will have no difficulty assembling the team and raising the money he needs for a run. That, coupled with his attempt to put a campaign together, means a Udall Senate run is likely.

And that would mean that, in 2008, all three of New Mexico’s members of the U.S. House of Representatives would give up their seats to duke it out for the right to replace Domenici. Two of three New Mexico giants are going to be without jobs in January 2009.

Here are a few thoughts on what’s happening behind the scenes, and what a Udall Senate run would mean:

• To get into the race, Udall would have to feel very confident that Gov. Bill Richardson, if he loses the Democratic presidential primary, won’t enter the Senate race. Udall’s daughter, Amanda Cooper, is the deputy campaign manager for Richardson’s presidential campaign. Expect that some serious conversations are taking place or, more likely, have already taken place, and Udall that believes Richardson will not enter the race regardless of what happens in the presidential contest.

• If Udall entered the race, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish wouldn’t likely run for Senate. She has said all along that she wants to live in New Mexico and be governor, but she was considering the race in part out of a sense of duty. Many who were pushing her to run are the same people who have pushed Udall, so the pressure will be off of Denish if Udall runs. In addition, in a Senate primary Denish and Udall would split the votes of the progressive Democrats who are so unhappy with the only big-name Democrat who has entered the Senate race thus far, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez. It seems unlikely that either wants to split that vote and hand their party’s nomination to the mayor.

• Democrats who would strongly consider running for Udall’s House seat include state Auditor Hector Balderas, state Rep. Peter Wirth, Public Regulation Commissioner Ben R. Lujan, New Mexico Highlands Regent Javier Gonzales, former Richardson Administration lawyer Geno Zamora and Judicial Standards Commission Director Jim Noel.

• The reshuffling would continue on down. A Balderas victory would open a statewide office. A Wirth victory would open a Senate seat (he’s forgoing re-election to the House to seek an open state Senate seat in Santa Fe, and is likely to win it). A Lujan victory would open a PRC seat.

• Udall would enter the Senate race as its frontrunner from either party. A recent SurveyUSA poll had him 18 points ahead of both Wilson and Pearce in potential general-election match-ups, while Chávez was behind Pearce by 21 points and Wilson by 4 points. But I would expect Chávez to close the gap significantly during a primary and Wilson or Pearce, if Udall got past the primary, to close the gap significantly during a general election.