After weeks of falling slightly in the polls, Gov. Bill Richardson appears to be making some late gains in the all-important state of Iowa, whose Democrats will be the first in the nation to make their choice for the presidential nominee.
Three of four new polls show him making notable gains in that state while Hillary Clinton’s support has dropped. The problem for Richardson is that Barack Obama and John Edwards also appear to be making late surges in advance of the Jan. 3 caucus.
On Nov. 9, Richardson’s Real Clear Politics average of recent polls in Iowa was 7.8 percent, a drop from its climb above 10 percent in late June. Consider these four polls released Wednesday and today:
• An American Research Group poll of 600 likely Iowa Democratic Caucus goers has Clinton at 27 percent, Obama at 21 percent, Edwards at 20 percent and Richardson at 12 percent. The poll, conducted Saturday-Wednesday, has a margin of error of 4 percent. For Richardson, it’s a gain of 5 percent since the group’s October survey.
• A Rasmussen Reports poll has Clinton at 29 percent, Edwards at 25 percent, Obama at 24 percent and Richardson at 10 percent. The survey of 1,239 likely caucus goers was conducted Monday and has a margin of error of 3 percent. For Richardson, it’s a three-point gain since the company’s October survey.
• A Strategic Vision survey has Clinton at 29 percent, Obama at 27 percent, Edwards at 20 percent and Richardson at 7 percent. The poll of 600 likely Democratic caucus goers has a margin of error of 4 percent. It’s the company’s first poll of Iowa Democrats in several months.
• A CBS News/New York Times poll has Clinton at 25 percent, Edwards at 23 percent, Obama at 22 percent and Richardson at 12 percent. The survey was conducted Nov. 2-11 and has a margin of error of 4 percent, and is the first in months from the news organizations.
So there’s a definite upward trend for Richardson as the campaign hits the final stretch, and it comes as Clinton has lost significant support, but the other frontrunners have gained as much as Richardson in recent months. What does it all mean? It’s hard to poll Iowa because it has a caucus, not a primary, so it’s difficult to say.
Richardson is also making news today because, on his birthday, he’s been nominated for the fifth time for the Nobel Peace Prize. The nomination doesn’t necessarily mean a lot – anyone can be nominated, and those who nominated him are campaign supporters – but it is a recognition of his years of diplomatic work, and it’s sure to help highlight his experience in the final weeks of the campaign.
As I wrote last week, it’s too early to completely count Richardson out.
He’ll probably point it out at tonight’s Democratic presidential candidate debate in Las Vegas, Nev.
After weeks of falling slightly in the polls, Gov. Bill Richardson appears to be making some late gains in the all-important state of