Chávez beating Pearce and Wilson in new poll

A new poll of potential general-election match-ups in the U.S. Senate race finds that Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez has gained a lot of ground in the last month.

SurveyUSA’s October poll, conducted for KOB-TV in Albuquerque, had Chávez losing to U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce by 21 points and to U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson by four points. But the newest SurveyUSA poll, conducted for the Washington publication Roll Call and released today, has Chávez beating Pearce by five points and beating Wilson by four points.

The poll is good news for a campaign that has had some recent setbacks: Confusion has surrounded Chávez’s finance committee since his campaign listed at least two people as members who, at the time, had not agreed to join. In addition, U.S. Rep. Tom Udall, D-N.M., is trying to put the pieces together for a serious challenge to Chávez in a Senate primary.

The new poll did not compare Udall to Pearce and Wilson. It was conducted, Oct. 27-30, before Udall announced late last week that he was reconsidering whether to run for Senate.

The poll did compare Gov. Bill Richardson, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish and newcomer Don Wiviott to Pearce and Wilson. Pearce lost to Denish by four points and Richardson by 21 points, but he defeated Wiviott by 17 points in the newest poll, which surveyed 625 registered voters and has a margin of error of 4 percent. Wilson lost in the poll to Denish by six points and Richardson by 22 points, but defeated Wiviott by 9 points.

Richardson insists he won’t run for Senate even if he loses the presidential race, and Denish announced late last week that she won’t run for Senate. Wiviott is running and for him, like for Chávez, the new poll is good news: Wiviott lost to Pearce by 35 points and lost to Wilson by 17 points in the October poll, so he’s essentially cut those deficits in half.

Wiviott has traveled around the state since the October poll and received some press coverage, but neither he nor Chávez have done a lot in the last month to cause such a change in the polls, so I’m not sure how to explain it. One thing I know: Progressive Democratic opposition to Chávez is high, and much of it is likely to go to Wiviott if Udall doesn’t enter the race.

The first poll was taken in the midst of the immediate scramble following Pete Domenici’s announcement that he wouldn’t seek re-election. I find it likely that the public has spent time since then becoming more familiar with the candidates and issues. In addition, the Democratic wave appears to be pushing voters to the left.

Another note: Udall beat both GOP candidates in the October poll by 18 points. If the shift to the left that helped Chávez and Wiviott so much in the new poll applies to Udall as well, he’s in a great position.

In comparing Pearce and Wilson, the new poll found that Wilson doesn’t poll stronger among women than does Pearce, but Pearce polls a couple of points stronger among men. Pearce also polls a couple of points stronger among independents.

Wilson, the poll found, is better known than Pearce but also has higher unfavorable numbers. Pearce is viewed favorably by 21 percent and unfavorably by 22 percent. Wilson is viewed favorably by 33 percent and unfavorably by 48 percent.

On the Democratic side, Chavez is viewed favorably by 28 percent and unfavorably by 37 percent and Wiviott – as a further sign that his support is for any opposition to Chávez, not for the candidate himself – is viewed favorably by 2 percent and unfavorably by 7 percent. He’s unknown to 59 percent.

Denish is viewed favorably by 33 percent an unfavorably by 28 percent, and Richardson is viewed favorably by 52 percent and unfavorably by 33 percent. Two lesser-known Democrats who are running– Jim Hannan and Leland Lehrman – weren’t included in either survey.