With 36 days until the Iowa Caucus and 41 days until the New Hampshire Primary, Gov. Bill Richardson is suddenly climbing in the polls and back on to the list of Democratic presidential candidates who must be taken seriously.
Since he rearranged staff to increase his presence in Iowa and New Hampshire at the beginning of November, Richardson has climbed in polls in both states. On Nov. 9, his Real Clear Politics average of recent polls in Iowa was 7.8 percent, and his average of recent polls in New Hampshire was 6.8 percent. Today, his average in Iowa is 9.8 percent, and in New Hampshire it’s 8.5 percent.
In Iowa, he’s still more than 12 points behind the third-place John Edwards in recent polls, but in New Hampshire, he’s only five points behind the former senator in the Real Clear Politics average. And in one recent New Hampshire poll, conducted for CNN and WMUR in New Hampshire, Richardson and Edwards were statistically tied – 12 percent for Richardson to 13 percent for Edwards.
“When it comes to Iowa and New Hampshire, I’m moving up. I’m tied for third in New Hampshire with Sen. Edwards,” Richardson said today in an interview with XM Satellite Radio, a segment in which I participated as a pundit commenting on Richardson’s presidential run.
Richardson isn’t talking at this point about winning either state. He’s hoping to finish third or better in both, betting that will lead to increased money and prominence that will allow him to compete in other primaries leading up to Feb. 5, the day so many states will hold primaries that the Democratic and Republican Party nominations will likely be finalized.
“If I can finish in the top three in (Iowa and New Hampshire), I’m on my way to being a major contender,” Richardson said today. “… I feel very strongly that I’ve got momentum and I can win.”
On Edwards’ heels
The Nation put it this way in a Nov. 21 article, writing about the New Hampshire primary:
“The action is with New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson… If the pattern holds, the New Mexican will easily overtake Edwards and could begin closing in on (Barack) Obama by the time New Hampshire holds its first-in-the-nation primary,” the article states. “It is worth noting that, according to the polls, Richardson is now viewed as more experienced than either Obama or Edwards by the New Hampshire voters. His numbers are dramatically up in other categories, as well, especially on measures of trust – the New Mexican now leads (Hillary) Clinton in this category.”
Also significant is the fact that, in the CNN poll, 47 percent of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters said they still have no idea who they’re going to vote for.
“It’s a horserace. It’s wide open,” Richardson said of the first two presidential nominating contests. “Iowa and New Hampshire are the lynchpins that catapult you.”
Iowa will hold its first-in-the-nation caucus on Jan. 3. New Hampshire’s primary, the first in the nation, is on Jan. 8.
Richardson’s resurgence
Richardson was the first presidential candidate to run television commercials in Iowa and New Hampshire in the late spring, which helped catapult him to about 10 percent in polls in both states by June 30. After that, he began a slow, steady decline that led many to count him out. Then the current climb began.
The resurgence coincided with Richardson shifting staff, but it also came at the same time that Obama and Edwards began a heavy assault on frontrunner Clinton that is continuing. Clinton has lost some support while Richardson has gained. It also comes as Richardson’s campaign is attempting to match Clinton and Obama dollar for dollar in Iowa and New Hampshire television advertising. His campaign unveiled a new ad on Tuesday.
The gains have Richardson’s campaign excited. It has begun filling busses with New Mexicans and sending them to Iowa and New Hampshire to campaign for Richardson. That will continue until voters in both states pick their nominees.
“The race is flattening out. The poll numbers are in flux. And the only candidate who has gained consistently in all polls is Bill Richardson,” campaign manager Dave Contarino wrote in an e-mail to supporters on Tuesday.
The bottom line?
“Richardson is moving up. He could stall. But if he keeps going in the direction he’s headed in, the governor could yet be a serious contender in the critical first tests of the Democratic race,” The Nation article states.
With 36 days until the Iowa Caucus and 41 days until the New Hampshire Primary, Gov. Bill Richardson is suddenly climbing in the polls and back on to the list of Democratic presidential candidates who must be taken seriously.