Tinsley hot in D.C., but crowded GOP primary is likely

Ed Tinsley is seriously considering entering the Second Congressional District race, but a number of other Republicans are also looking. While one national GOP source said Tinsley is “hot” in Washington, he isn’t ruling out the possibility of a dozen people in a primary.

In an interview, Tinsley confirmed his consideration of the race. The restaurant chain owner, who’s also a Capitan rancher, real estate developer and oilman, said he won’t make a decision for at least two weeks. That’s because his wife and daughter are in New York, and he doesn’t want to consume their trip with talk of a congressional run, so he’ll wait until they return.

“Family is first,” he said.

Tinsley ran unsuccessfully for the seat in 2002, the year Steve Pearce was first elected. Pearce is vacating the seat at the end of next year because he’s running for the Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici.

“Losing that race to Steve was probably one of the hardest things for me to swallow in my life,” Tinsley said.

At the same time, it opened up a new opportunity. Tinsley owns the K-Bob’s chain of restaurants, and after the congressional loss he became heavily involved in the influential National Restaurant Association, serving last year as the chairman of its board. He said he will have to consider his business interests – he has company operations in four states – before deciding whether to run.

Tinsley’s potential candidacy is also bolstered by the fact that he was recently appointed by President Bush to serve as a trustee for the Valles Caldera National Preserve in Northern New Mexico.

Tinsley will likely have some serious competition if he decides to get into the congressional race. Though no Republicans have announced their candidacies, state Sen. Leonard Lee Rawson of Las Cruces and Sierra County Republican Party Chair C. Earl Greer have confirmed to me that they’re seriously considering the race. Other Republicans considering the race include state Reps. Don Bratton of Hobbs, Bill Gray of Artesia and Don Tripp of Socorro, Roswell businessman and former congressional candidate Phelps Anderson, Roswell High School Principal Mike Kakuska and former Roswell Mayor Bill Owen.

A national GOP official, who spoke on condition that his name not be used, said a number of Republicans in Washington are very interested in a potential Tinsley candidacy. However, the National Republican Congressional Committee, the fundraising arm of House Republicans, won’t endorse anyone in a primary, he said.

The GOP official expects the Roswellians considering the race to defer to one candidate so they don’t split the Chaves County vote. He said a Doña Ana County base of support could be a “huge advantage” for Rawson in a primary. The official doesn’t expect a potential Greer candidacy to have any momentum, saying his failed bid to become state party chair earlier this year “took a lot of steam out of his campaign.”

The official said he expects some of the state representatives considering the race to run.

The now-open Second Congressional District seat is one many national analysts list as likely to stay in Republican hands, but the seat was frequently listed as being safely in GOP hands before Pearce announced his Senate bid.

Still, the fact that it’s not at the top of the list for the NRCC means the candidate who emerges from the primary is going to have to have money – whether it’s personal wealth or the ability to raise lots of cash in New Mexico. Republicans know 2008 is going to be a difficult year, and Democrats – particularly their House counterpart of the NRCC – are raising a lot more money than Republicans. There’s not enough GOP money to go around next year.

“Somebody’s going to have to sink or swim in that district,” the official said. “Somebody’s going to have to do that on their own.”

Tinsley has personal wealth and is willing to spend some of it on a run, making his potential candidacy even more attractive to Washington GOP officials.

Carraro travels to D.C.

The GOP source said the money situation will be a factor, to some degree, in every House race, and noted that state Sen. Joe Carraro, R-Albuquerque, was in Washington on Thursday meeting with GOP officials as he considers running for the House seat being vacated by Heather Wilson, who is also running for Domenici’s seat.

Carraro would have to face Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White in a primary. The official said many people Carraro met with on Thursday “threw water on him” because they like White but, at least officially, they won’t get involved in a primary.

Still, the spokesperson for the NRCC, commenting on White campaign polling that shows him as the frontrunner in the race, told the D.C. publication Roll Call that “The number don’t lie. Darren White is a political heavyweight with widespread appeal and if these numbers mean anything, it is that any Democrat – currently or considering running – might want to think twice about getting into this race.”

A tough situation for the GOP

The political wrangling reveals a tough situation for Republicans. They went from having strong incumbents in one Senate and two House seats up for grabs next year to having to defend three open seats. Pearce and Wilson have created an expensive and potentially divisive Senate primary, and there’s some pressure to avoid that in the House races.

Many GOP officials are concerned about having enough money and also about GOP candidates being damaged in primaries when the mood of the nation already favors Democrats.

Three Democrats have already entered the race: Al Kissling, Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague. At least three others are also considering the race.

Noting the three open seats, Tinsley said he’s a little worried about 2008.

“It’s an unusual situation in a state our size, and I’m sure the Democrats are over there licking their chops,” he said.