News of U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici’s retirement after 36 years sets off a domino effect that begins with the highest offices in the state and filters down to local races in a number of communities.
The Bill Richardson issue aside, the immediate question is whether the other giants – U.S. Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce on the GOP side and U.S. Rep. Tom Udall, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish and Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez on the Democratic side – plan to seek the open Senate seat. All four will consider it.
If Wilson and Pearce, who both want the Senate seat, jump into the race, two heavily contested House seats are suddenly open. In the Second Congressional District, Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley, a Democrat who has raised somewhere around $200,000 for a congressional run, becomes the favorite, but that could change when Republicans find a candidate. In addition, the possible entrance into the race of state Rep. Joseph Cervantes, a Democrat who has waited years for such an opportunity, could create one of the most interesting primaries in the state.
Martin Heinrich, who has likely raised well over $250,000 for his First Congressional District campaign, would become the frontrunner in that race, but what if GOP Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White jumped into the race? What about any one of a number of Democrats who have said in recent months they were considering the race, including state Auditor Hector Balderas, who was recently named one of the nation’s 100 most influential Hispanics?
If Udall jumps into the Senate race, a number of Democrats could seek to replace him, including state Rep. Peter Wirth and Public Regulation Commissioner Ben R. Lujan.
And what about others who have publicly and privately floated ideas for months, like former Attorney General Patricia Madrid, who might run for the Senate seat; state Rep. Al Park, who has been mentioned as a possible Albuquerque mayoral or First Congressional District candidate; Land Commissioner Pat Lyons, whose only steps left are congressman, senator or governor; and Doña Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez, who Republicans will likely ask to run for the Second Congressional District seat if Pearce vacates it?
What would happen if Denish and
It’s worth noting that the loss of Cervantes, Park or Wirth in the state House might hamper the ability of Republicans and moderate Democrats to work together to push through legislation being stonewalled by the speaker, as they did earlier this year with a bill to reform the state’s housing authority system.
The potential moves by those or other lawmakers could touch communities around the state, and the filling of any legislative seats by local elected officials would create local openings.
Then there’s the 2010 gubernatorial race…
If your head is spinning right now, it should be. The number of potential scenarios are almost mind-boggling.
With so many candidates jockeying for position, the next few days will be critical. Politicos will conduct polls. They’ll talk with friends, family members and each other. They’ll wait to learn what others plan to do.
Who knows what the board will look like by the time filing day comes around next spring? It’s an entirely new game in
This posting has been edited to remove the name of someone I originally called a potential candidate for a local race who assures me that he is not interested and gave reason why my mentioning his name was erroneous.