With no more than 66 days until the first presidential nominating contest, Gov. Bill Richardson’s presidential campaign appears to be in trouble, at least if poll numbers are any indication.
In recent weeks, Richardson’s support in polls in the critical states of Iowa and New Hampshire and in national surveys has dropped. The dip has coincided with major advertising blitzes by frontrunners Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, but also with a rise in the polls by some other second-tier Democratic candidates.
At this point, Richardson’s frequently cited status as the leader of the second tier of Democratic presidential candidates isn’t certain.
Consider these facts:
• On Oct. 1, Richardson’s Real Clear Politics average of recent polls in Iowa was 10.8 percent. It has fallen in four weeks to 7.8 percent.
• On Sept. 27, Richardson’s Real Clear Politics average of recent polls in New Hampshire was 9 percent. Today it’s 7.4 percent.
• After Richardson’s surge in the polls in the late spring and early summer, Real Clear Politics added him to the list of candidates whose status the site tracks in recent national polls, recognizing his solid fourth-place status. His average climbed above 4 percent some weeks, but generally stayed at around 4 percent. Richardson’s average fell below 3 percent last week, and Real Clear Politics quit including him in its national poll tracking.
More bad news
You want more? There is more:
• A new University of Iowa poll of likely caucus goers in that state, released today, has Clinton at 28.9 percent, Obama at 26.6 percent, John Edwards at 20 percent and Richardson at 7.2 percent. For Clinton, it’s a climb of about four points since the university’s August poll. It’s a climb of about seven points for Obama. Edwards fell six points, and Richardson fell 2.2 points.
Perhaps most significant for Richardson is the fact that Joe Biden, who registered at less than 1 percent in the group’s August poll, came in at 5.3 percent in the poll released today. The 1.9-percent difference between Biden and Richardson is well within the 5.5-percent margin of error in the survey of 306 likely Democratic caucus goers.
Biden was recently added to the list of candidates Real Clear Politics is tracking in Iowa, and his average in recent polls today is 5 percent – only 2.4 percent behind Richardson.
• The newest Rasmussen Reports poll of New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters, released Saturday, has Clinton at 38 percent, Obama at 22 percent, Edwards at 14 percent and Richardson at 7 percent. The most significant development in the poll is that Dennis Kucinich is tied with Richardson at 7 percent.
The last Rasmussen Reports poll in New Hampshire, released Sept. 18, had Richardson at 11 percent, so he’s fallen four points. Kucinich wasn’t even named in the group’s release about its September poll. Edwards’ support hasn’t climbed since the September poll. Obama’s has climbed five points, and Clinton’s has climbed two points.
• Here’s a rundown of the most recent national polls: Rasmussen Reports has Richardson at less than 3 percent, FOX News has him at 2 percent, a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has him at 2 percent, and CBS News and USA Today didn’t even include him in recent polls.
Still more
There’s another situation that has yet to play out that could be bad for the Richardson campaign. Iowa Democrats have finally set the date of their caucuses for Jan. 3. That’s 66 days from today. But New Hampshire hasn’t set the date for its primary. It could be Jan. 8. It could be in December.
A December primary in New Hampshire would be bad news for Richardson. Though that state has been his secondary focus, he has put all his hopes on placing third or better in Iowa and spent the bulk of his money there. If he’s creamed in New Hampshire first, his efforts in Iowa may not matter when caucuses are held there.
What’s next?
Richardson surged in the polls until about June 30. Then his poll numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire stagnated until roughly the end of September, when the current drop began. Meanwhile, other candidates are climbing in the polls.
This isn’t the ideal time to have to shake up a campaign, but it appears Richardson needs something major to happen.
With no more than 66 days until the first presidential nominating contest, Gov. Bill Richardson’s presidential campaign appears to be in trouble, at least if poll numbers are any indication.