The first public polling done on the dynamics of the 2008 U.S. Senate race finds Rep. Steve Pearce, R-N.M., significantly stronger than GOP Rep. Heather Wilson in potential head-to-head contests against Democratic opponents.
With Pearce still undecided on whether to challenge
Read the poll’s full results by clicking here.
Regardless of what Pearce says, the numbers are hard to ignore. The survey, conducted Friday through Sunday, found Pearce beating Democrat Don Wiviott by 35 points, while
Not all potential contests revealed such a strong advantage for Pearce. A potential battle against Gov. Bill Richardson had Pearce losing by 24 points and
But Udall and Richardson have both announced they aren’t running. Wiviott has been in the race since before U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici announced his retirement and has pledged to spend $2.1 million on a primary race. Chávez will announce on Tuesday that he’s running.
The poll did not consider the possible candidacy of Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, who is seriously considering the race, and it did not include two lesser-known Democrats – Jim Hannan and Leland Lehrman – and one lesser-known Republican – Spiro G. Vassilopoulos – who are running.
The poll of 514 registered voters, conducted for KOB-TV in
It’s worth noting that the new poll is an automated phone survey, the methodology of which is sometimes questioned, but SurveyUSA has a record of producing fairly accurate polls.
What it means for Republicans
Pearce will face additional pressure to get in the race, but the poll might not reflect his strength as much as it reflects some swing voters’ familiarity with – and dislike of –
Pearce, on the other hand, is largely unknown to voters in two-thirds of the state, getting little coverage outside the Second Congressional District he represents except, to some degree, in
Along with the current Democratic wave that is sweeping across the nation, millions of dollars in Democratic and special-interest money have been directed at
Through the course of a Senate race, however, voters would become very familiar with the fact that Pearce has a much more conservative voting record than
Still, the poll numbers are certain to fortify the base of support that is already encouraging Pearce to get in the race and may help grow it.
What it means for Democrats
On the Democratic side, the poll is an obvious indicator that
Most notably, all three Democrats included in the poll who are running or considering running had less support than Pearce and Wilson.
Depending on what Pearce decides, the poll could encourage other Democrats to get in the race. The pressure on Denish, especially, is likely to increase, since most view her as a stronger candidate than Chávez or