Poll finds Pearce stronger than Wilson against Dems

The first public polling done on the dynamics of the 2008 U.S. Senate race finds Rep. Steve Pearce, R-N.M., significantly stronger than GOP Rep. Heather Wilson in potential head-to-head contests against Democratic opponents.

With Pearce still undecided on whether to challenge Wilson in a primary, the SurveyUSA poll is certain to put further pressure on Southern New Mexico’s congressman to get into the race. He has said his decision won’t be based on polls, but will instead be based on what he believes is right.

Read the poll’s full results by clicking here.

Regardless of what Pearce says, the numbers are hard to ignore. The survey, conducted Friday through Sunday, found Pearce beating Democrat Don Wiviott by 35 points, while Wilson beat him by 17. The poll had Pearce beating Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez by 21 points, while Wilson beat him by four points. And Pearce beat former Attorney General Patricia Madrid by 16 points, while Wilson beat her by one point.

Not all potential contests revealed such a strong advantage for Pearce. A potential battle against Gov. Bill Richardson had Pearce losing by 24 points and Wilson losing by 27. Both lost to U.S. Rep. Tom Udall by 18 points.

But Udall and Richardson have both announced they aren’t running. Wiviott has been in the race since before U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici announced his retirement and has pledged to spend $2.1 million on a primary race. Chávez will announce on Tuesday that he’s running. Madrid will discuss the race with family in Las Cruces this weekend before deciding whether to run.

The poll did not consider the possible candidacy of Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, who is seriously considering the race, and it did not include two lesser-known Democrats – Jim Hannan and Leland Lehrman – and one lesser-known Republican – Spiro G. Vassilopoulos – who are running.

The poll of 514 registered voters, conducted for KOB-TV in Albuquerque, had a margin of error of 4.4 percent. It’s also noteworthy that the poll tested Domenici’s approval rating and found it at 59 percent – a full 18 points better than the September poll that had his approval at 41 percent. I’ll let you speculate about the reasons for the jump. Sen. Jeff Bingaman’s approval in the new poll was also 59 percent, up one point from September.

It’s worth noting that the new poll is an automated phone survey, the methodology of which is sometimes questioned, but SurveyUSA has a record of producing fairly accurate polls.

What it means for Republicans

Pearce will face additional pressure to get in the race, but the poll might not reflect his strength as much as it reflects some swing voters’ familiarity with – and dislike of – Wilson, particularly in the Albuquerque area. Wilson has battled it out in hot races every two years since she was elected, and millions of dollars in advertising have spread her name, in a negative context, throughout the Albuquerque television market, which includes every county in the state except Doña Ana.

Pearce, on the other hand, is largely unknown to voters in two-thirds of the state, getting little coverage outside the Second Congressional District he represents except, to some degree, in Albuquerque.

Along with the current Democratic wave that is sweeping across the nation, millions of dollars in Democratic and special-interest money have been directed at Wilson in the last year alone. Pearce hasn’t faced the same level or volume of attacks.

Through the course of a Senate race, however, voters would become very familiar with the fact that Pearce has a much more conservative voting record than Wilson, and millions of dollars in attack ads would be thrown at him. Republicans need conservative Democratic votes to win statewide races in New Mexico, and some of the support that currently exists for Pearce in the SurveyUSA poll would likely erode throughout the course of the election season.

Still, the poll numbers are certain to fortify the base of support that is already encouraging Pearce to get in the race and may help grow it.

What it means for Democrats

On the Democratic side, the poll is an obvious indicator that Richardson would enter the race as the likely winner no matter who else is running, but he insists he won’t enter the race even if he loses the presidential contest. The poll shows both Chávez and Madrid as competitive against Wilson, but not against Pearce.

Most notably, all three Democrats included in the poll who are running or considering running had less support than Pearce and Wilson.

Depending on what Pearce decides, the poll could encourage other Democrats to get in the race. The pressure on Denish, especially, is likely to increase, since most view her as a stronger candidate than Chávez or Madrid. If Denish declines, there might be new pressure on Udall to change his mind.