In 2nd District, all eyes are on Cervantes, Republicans

Though none have yet stepped forward, it’s likely that a number of Republicans will join the three Democrats already running for the Second Congressional District seat being vacated next year by GOP Rep. Steve Pearce, who has decided to run for Senate.

But perhaps the biggest question is whether state Rep. Joseph Cervantes, D-Las Cruces, will enter the race. He has considered but declined for years to run against Pearce, but many – some after having conversations with Cervantes – have said in recent days that they expected Cervantes to enter the House race if Pearce ran for the Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici.

And political analyst Jose Garcia, who has served as the treasurer for Cervantes’ state House campaigns, wrote in a guest column published on this site on Oct. 6 that Cervantes “would almost certainly waste no time getting into the (House) race” if Pearce ran for Senate.

Cervantes has not returned repeated phone calls today, and has also not responded to a text message or e-mail.

On the Democratic side, Al Kissling, Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague have entered the race. Many doubt Kissling will get the support at the preprimary nominating convention to qualify for the ballot, but a race that involves Cervantes, McCamley and Teague would be interesting.

McCamley had $186,000 on hand at the end of the third quarter and has secured the endorsements of a number of union groups, three state representatives from Doña Ana County and one Public Regulation Commission member from Sierra County. But Cervantes and Teague both have money. How much can they put into the race?

McCamley and Teague would likely to split the Anglo vote, but Cervantes and McCamley would likely to split the vote in the western half of the district. Most political watchers who analyzed that potential race said today it would be an exciting contest that’s difficult to predict.

Teague said earlier today that it didn’t matter who, including Cervantes, entered the race. McCamley released a statement reaffirming his commitment.

“Since I announced my candidacy (in April), I have put over 30,000 miles on my car traveling the second district to meet with the people of Southern New Mexico and hear about their concerns and issues,” he said. “Now that Pearce has announced his candidacy for Senate, I am more committed than ever to winning this seat and using it to bring real change to Washington. With over $200,000 raised so far and the recent endorsements of key elected officials and unions, our campaign is picking up momentum, and we are going to keep gaining momentum all the way to victory next November.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the fundraising arm of House Democrats, is optimistic about the chance of taking another seat from the GOP. Some Washington Republicans had discouraged Pearce from running for Senate because they didn’t want to have to defend his House seat.

“If it’s not one thing, it’s another for national Republicans already scrambling to plug all the holes in their sinking ship,” DCCC spokesman Doug Thornell said. “New Mexico 2 presents Democrats with a great pickup opportunity.”

The Republican equation

On the Republican side, there is no frontrunner or automatic candidate for Pearce’s seat. Many had assumed for years that state House Minority Whip Dan Foley, R-Roswell, would run when the seat came open, but with the criminal case against him in limbo, Foley isn’t likely to consider the race. And though Doña Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez is being asked to consider the race, she says she isn’t interested.

Many Republicans are floating the names of Phelps Anderson and Ed Tinsley, who lost to Pearce in the Republican primary in 2002.

Anderson wouldn’t say whether he’s interested because, though a source close to Pearce has confirmed to me and other media outlets that the congressman is running for Senate, he said it’s not appropriate to comment until Pearce himself makes his decision known.

Anderson noted, however, that he and Pearce were two of seven Republicans who ran the last time the seat was open, and he suspects that, “if Steve decides to run for Senate, we’ll see a crowded primary again.”

Scott Darnell, spokesman for the state Republican Party, said no one has contacted the party “with an interest in running” for Pearce’s seat.

“The Republican Party is confident that we will have quality candidates for Congress next year,” he said. “These candidates will have the grassroots support and resources necessary to engage voters in a rigorous discussion about preserving the safety of the American people and bettering the lives of New Mexicans. There’s no question that recent developments present new challenges for the Republican Party, but we’re eager to take them on and confident that we will win.”

One name being floated is that of state Rep. Bill Gray, R-Artesia, who replaced the retiring Joe Stell in the Legislature this year. He’s a wealthy, moderate Republican who a knowledgeable source confirmed is considering the race.

Now that the seat is open, other Republicans and Democrats are certain to consider the race, and more names will emerge in the coming days.

The Senate race

A source close to Pearce said the congressman will informally tell friends and supporters about the decision in the coming days and will make a formal announcement sometime after that. The source would not comment on whether Pearce has done any polling or will commit any of his personal wealth to the race.

Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez, the most high-profile Democrat in the Senate race, said he isn’t concerned about the prospect of facing Pearce. He previously told me Pearce was more formidable than U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson, R-N.M., who is also running for Senate.

“The GOP will determine their nominee. The Democrats will determine ours,” Chávez said. “I feel very comfortable with either of the principal Republicans. I wouldn’t count out this Spiro, either. I don’t know him.”

“Spiro” is political newcomer Spiro G. Vassilopoulos, a GOP oilman who has also entered the race.

Former state Attorney General Patricia Madrid, who announced today that she won’t seek the Senate seat, said she understands why Pearce is running. Wilson narrowly defeated her last year in a tough re-election bid.

“He is a lot stronger than Heather Wilson on that side of the ticket,” Madrid said. “There’s no doubt that my race against Heather Wilson weakened her and damaged her significantly.”

Wilson’s office declined comment.

Brian Colón, chairman of the state Democratic Party, pointed out that Pearce has been a steadfast supporter of the president’s Iraq policy and voted against a bill to increase funding for children’s health insurance. He also accused Pearce of consistently voting “to support Bush’s fiscally reckless management of the budget that turned record surpluses into record deficits.”

“In the real world, when folks fail miserably at their jobs like Steve Pearce has, they get fired, not promoted,” Colón said. “Steve Pearce is in a state of denial to believe that his record of failure would lead the people of New Mexico to consider giving him a promotion.”

The other candidates who have entered the Senate race are political newcomers Don Wiviott, Jim Hannan and Leland Lehrman, all Democrats. Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, a Democrat, and Land Commissioner Pat Lyons, a Republican, are both considering the race. Denish said she doesn’t know when she’ll make a decision, and Lyons has not returned several calls seeking comment.